Trade Master J said...
It seems as though you mind as well be blind looking at charts..,The market is making all time highs and you are looking to get short??!!! LOLWhere did you learn to trade anyways
7:22 PM
Very good point, Jam Master. However, I am sure I wrote somewhere in my blog that I was not going to just sell for selling's sake. And certainly I am not married to my position either. With that said, I do still feel the way I feel . Every trader has his or her own time frame. Mine is longer term. While i have been away from my charts for over a week (still studying for Series 7-taking a class...) I doubt things have changed too much in the world. One thing I did learn from trading on the floor for 7 years is this....THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND. And, Trademaster, you are correct here. We are making record highs and it seems dumb to sell into rallies. However, I don't really think this is a HUGE RALLY with TONS OF VOLUME behind it. In addition, it is a long while since we have been up here, and the 11725 level just doesn't seem SO HIGH to me. Back then, I thought we would be at 15000! So, back to these levels...not really sure it means so much. I do think it's funny how we are at the highs while we are all so negative. But just funny, not wrong! NOW...If there was one more thing that trumped that great adage of 'the trend is your friend', it is this. LISTEN TO YOURSELF...NOONE'S OPINION MATTERS MORE THAN YOUR OWN!!! That GELLER-ADAGE is the most important. I have gotten out of too many good trades and not taken too many others b/c I let someone else's ideas get in my head. I don't let that happen anymore.
One more thing I want to say about this year's market. If you had sold the market each time it made a new high and bought it each time it made a new low, you would have done just fine. We have been range-bound all year. And, this opinion of mine wasn't "blind". Not in the least. I called this move up to the top when we reached the bottom. (SEE PAST BLOGS). I had been looking for places to get long for months now, and if you continue to peruse thru the past blogs, you will see that I did scalp on the long side quite a few times. That scalping is now done, and I wait for signals that we will turn down. Until those signal occur though, I sit on the side.
Good luck, and thank you for the posts. Believe it or not, I appreicate those "negative" posts even more than the positive "I think you are right" posts. They make me come back to earth.
Andy
Wednesday, October 04, 2006
Friday, September 29, 2006
BLIND WRITING
Let me just start out by saying I have not looked at a chart since Monday or Tuesday...I think that's a record for me. So, anything I might say about the market is totally based on previous opinions and research and not based on any technical charting done today. That being said, here goes...
Like I have written recently, I am not overall bullish on the market. Recently I was wanting to be long, and as you may have read, I got long, made some profits and got tricked out of my positions by fake outs and lack of dicipline, or simply tyring to be too safe. Anyway, continuing on...I had said that after I took those longs for a ride, I wanted to get short at or near the newer highs. Those have occured, so I would now be looking for places to get short. NOW, I AM NOT SAYING I WOULD SHORT THE MARKET HERE...ESPECIALLY SINCE I HAVEN'T LOOKED AT A CHART IN NEARLY A WEEK! What I am saying, is that I would look for a place.....I would look at my weekly and daily charts to see when and where a short might occur, and I would take it. Let me reiterate...I WOULD NOT TAKE A SHORT BASED ON A 60 MINUTE OR SHORTER TIME-FRAMED CHART!!! Only on a weekly or a daily...more so on a Weekly.
So...when will that happen? Not sure. I am out all next week studying for my Series 7 test, which I plan to take and pass with flying colors. But, man,this crap is tough...but I must admit...VERY INTERESTING AND COOL. I would be very scared if I didn't think this stuff was cool and interesting...That would indicate I am barking up the wrong tree as far as my career..did that make any sense?
Anyway, wish me luck..b/c I wish you all luck trading.
Andy
Like I have written recently, I am not overall bullish on the market. Recently I was wanting to be long, and as you may have read, I got long, made some profits and got tricked out of my positions by fake outs and lack of dicipline, or simply tyring to be too safe. Anyway, continuing on...I had said that after I took those longs for a ride, I wanted to get short at or near the newer highs. Those have occured, so I would now be looking for places to get short. NOW, I AM NOT SAYING I WOULD SHORT THE MARKET HERE...ESPECIALLY SINCE I HAVEN'T LOOKED AT A CHART IN NEARLY A WEEK! What I am saying, is that I would look for a place.....I would look at my weekly and daily charts to see when and where a short might occur, and I would take it. Let me reiterate...I WOULD NOT TAKE A SHORT BASED ON A 60 MINUTE OR SHORTER TIME-FRAMED CHART!!! Only on a weekly or a daily...more so on a Weekly.
So...when will that happen? Not sure. I am out all next week studying for my Series 7 test, which I plan to take and pass with flying colors. But, man,this crap is tough...but I must admit...VERY INTERESTING AND COOL. I would be very scared if I didn't think this stuff was cool and interesting...That would indicate I am barking up the wrong tree as far as my career..did that make any sense?
Anyway, wish me luck..b/c I wish you all luck trading.
Andy
Tuesday, September 26, 2006
HOW I AM FEELING RIGHT NOW...
Anyone play poker? If so...then you will know how I feel. Right now, being out of my longs and more importantly, not getting long at 1322 yesterday a.m. like I wanted to is akin to this: Having KK pre-flop...the guy in front of me raises, I re-raise and he goes all in....Something in me says he has AA, and even though I have great pot odds, I fold....He flips over his 77.
I then ask to see the flop, and 2 kings come out!
That's where I am right now. I think I wrote yesterday about the my amazement that the S&Ps weren't trading in the 1340s...and were still in the lower 1320s...Well, me and the rest of the losers are on the sidelines! And look at them now...1342. BLAAAAAAAAAAAAh.
Good Luck.
Andy
I then ask to see the flop, and 2 kings come out!
That's where I am right now. I think I wrote yesterday about the my amazement that the S&Ps weren't trading in the 1340s...and were still in the lower 1320s...Well, me and the rest of the losers are on the sidelines! And look at them now...1342. BLAAAAAAAAAAAAh.
Good Luck.
Andy
Monday, September 25, 2006
Scalping
Let me just reiterate what part of trading I hate. I hate scalping. I am not good at it, it makes me miserable, and it contradicts everything I know about my style of trading. I did it today, and I lost money.
Lesson learned. Please please please learn from my mistake. Know your style of trading. Know what type of trades make you happy and which make you go insane. I am hoping this will be the last time I do that to myself.
Good Luck.
Andy
I will be studying most of the days coming up, as I have some Series exams to take (7, 63, et al.) A lot of these exams I had years ago and have let expire. I didn't need any of the to be a trader on the floor. Now, however....I do need them. So, wish me luck.
Andy
Lesson learned. Please please please learn from my mistake. Know your style of trading. Know what type of trades make you happy and which make you go insane. I am hoping this will be the last time I do that to myself.
Good Luck.
Andy
I will be studying most of the days coming up, as I have some Series exams to take (7, 63, et al.) A lot of these exams I had years ago and have let expire. I didn't need any of the to be a trader on the floor. Now, however....I do need them. So, wish me luck.
Andy
THE MOST IMPORTANT EXPERT...
The most important expert is you. Listen to your own ideas. If you followed or shadowed the best trader, most likely you would fail miserably. That's because you don't know why that trader is doing what he/she is doing, you don't have the same risk tolerance as that trader, etc.
The lesson I learned this a.m. is this: All the smart guys in the world, and by smart guys, I mean men and women, can have all the reasons in the world to be short or long, but they aren't your reasons. I was slightly clouded this a.m. and moronishly instead of taking to the sidelines or just holding my thoughts, I changed my thoughts. I posted earlier how I changed my disposition to slightly bearish due to the fact that the market failed to rally. Most likely, as I watch it rally now, bouncing off my ideal entry points, the market was shaking out those unconfident longs...the longs who were listening to everyone else. The longs who didn't really know for sure that they wanted to be long. I am missing out on this nice long rally b/c I listened to everyone other than Andy.
Good luck doing asI say, not as I do.
Andy
The lesson I learned this a.m. is this: All the smart guys in the world, and by smart guys, I mean men and women, can have all the reasons in the world to be short or long, but they aren't your reasons. I was slightly clouded this a.m. and moronishly instead of taking to the sidelines or just holding my thoughts, I changed my thoughts. I posted earlier how I changed my disposition to slightly bearish due to the fact that the market failed to rally. Most likely, as I watch it rally now, bouncing off my ideal entry points, the market was shaking out those unconfident longs...the longs who were listening to everyone else. The longs who didn't really know for sure that they wanted to be long. I am missing out on this nice long rally b/c I listened to everyone other than Andy.
Good luck doing asI say, not as I do.
Andy
QUESTION: WHO IS THE MAN?
The man would be he who doesn't second guess himself. I am going to make it my resolution for the rest of the year to try to be "the man". Second guessing only confuses you. It's ok to change your mind based on new information, but without anything new coming to the table, second guessing is just that...guessing.
Just as I was rueing (sp?) getting out of my longs, we broke hard and we sit right near the levels I wanted to origionally buy at (1322ish). And this time, I don't feel like buying. Infact, this time, I am sitting tight and have a slightly bearish outlook. We have failed misserably to get past those recent highs, and we were so darn close. We had a great $15 dollar lead in the S&Ps from my good long entry points, and still nothing great to speak of. I thought for sure we would continue today's open enthusiasm and rally into the 1340s. But alas, we sit near last weeks lows. Gartman is short (via long puts) and while I don't follow anyone else's advice...he's smart, so I do listen to his logic. Richard Russell is for sure not a bull these days. And again, while I don't listen to others, if I had to listen to one person...Russell would be the dude (besides me, that is).
I would also like to suggest a good trading blog read. http://www.dehtrader.com/
His name is Glenn. And although I am not sure if he reads my blog, I read his. He's very honest. Unlike most, he posts all his trades...good and bad. I think that's very very important.
So....enjoy...Good Luck.
Andy
Just as I was rueing (sp?) getting out of my longs, we broke hard and we sit right near the levels I wanted to origionally buy at (1322ish). And this time, I don't feel like buying. Infact, this time, I am sitting tight and have a slightly bearish outlook. We have failed misserably to get past those recent highs, and we were so darn close. We had a great $15 dollar lead in the S&Ps from my good long entry points, and still nothing great to speak of. I thought for sure we would continue today's open enthusiasm and rally into the 1340s. But alas, we sit near last weeks lows. Gartman is short (via long puts) and while I don't follow anyone else's advice...he's smart, so I do listen to his logic. Richard Russell is for sure not a bull these days. And again, while I don't listen to others, if I had to listen to one person...Russell would be the dude (besides me, that is).
I would also like to suggest a good trading blog read. http://www.dehtrader.com/
His name is Glenn. And although I am not sure if he reads my blog, I read his. He's very honest. Unlike most, he posts all his trades...good and bad. I think that's very very important.
So....enjoy...Good Luck.
Andy
SAD THAT I AM FLAT...
The opposite of buyers remorse in trading is "I was a wuss" remorse. Someone please remind me of all the good reasons I did NOT get back into my longs on Friday. I can't tell you how many times I bought and sold 1321.5s and 1322.75s!!! I will have to read and reread my blog for all those smart reasons I gave myself.
Someone comment!!!
Me (good luck!)
Someone comment!!!
Me (good luck!)
Friday, September 22, 2006
ON SECOND THOUGHT...
...Something tells me to just back off and come back after the weekend! That's what I am going to do. It was a good week..let's keep it that way.
Phew!
Have a great weekend/Holiday.
Andy
Phew!
Have a great weekend/Holiday.
Andy
RE-BUY?
http://i62.photobucket.com/albums/h101/asunblock/ES60minRe-buy.jpg
http://i62.photobucket.com/albums/h101/asunblock/ESDailyRe-Buy.jpg
I am considering getting back into my longs here on Friday, the eve of Rosh Hashanna. The level we are at in the S&Ps is exactly where I wanted to get in last week, the Daily and 60 minute charts look attractive per my trend support lines, and getting long would be in line with my thoughts that we are still headed to newer highs.
A few things that stand in my way are the following: 1) Holliday weekend and a weekend at that...I hate having positions over the weekend in a time where anything in the world that can happen, usually does on a daily basis. The thought of carrying a position with the inability to have a stop in makes me uneasy. The flip side of that is this: If I am every going to have long-term positions on, I have to get over this! 2) I am clouded slightly with my opinion that we are going to make newer highs and then reverse to long term lows. This opinion might be standing in my way of seeing what is really happening...which is something other than a clear long right here. 3) The Dow DID just make almost new highs, or at least reach the old ones...isn't that enough for my taste? No, but how do I know that for sure...
The answer is, I don't! I really do just have to go with what the charts are telling me, and right here and now, it looks like a long is not a terrible play. I will decide and let you all know (you all, being me, myself and I).
Good luck.
Andy
http://i62.photobucket.com/albums/h101/asunblock/ESDailyRe-Buy.jpg
I am considering getting back into my longs here on Friday, the eve of Rosh Hashanna. The level we are at in the S&Ps is exactly where I wanted to get in last week, the Daily and 60 minute charts look attractive per my trend support lines, and getting long would be in line with my thoughts that we are still headed to newer highs.
A few things that stand in my way are the following: 1) Holliday weekend and a weekend at that...I hate having positions over the weekend in a time where anything in the world that can happen, usually does on a daily basis. The thought of carrying a position with the inability to have a stop in makes me uneasy. The flip side of that is this: If I am every going to have long-term positions on, I have to get over this! 2) I am clouded slightly with my opinion that we are going to make newer highs and then reverse to long term lows. This opinion might be standing in my way of seeing what is really happening...which is something other than a clear long right here. 3) The Dow DID just make almost new highs, or at least reach the old ones...isn't that enough for my taste? No, but how do I know that for sure...
The answer is, I don't! I really do just have to go with what the charts are telling me, and right here and now, it looks like a long is not a terrible play. I will decide and let you all know (you all, being me, myself and I).
Good luck.
Andy
Wednesday, September 20, 2006
CHAMPION!!!
I am out of all my trades, and it's the smart/safe move. I had wanted to hold all my trades for the longer-term, but the fed day proved to be a frustration. I stood a chance of giving away most of my gains on stops, only to watch it move back and forth. I am now flat, and am sure we will rally now that I am out of the longs!
good trade though. Up$700...gold about $200. Not bad for a day. As I write this...we are rallying...I will try not to cry and look back. Hindsight is always 20/20.
Good luck.
Andy
good trade though. Up$700...gold about $200. Not bad for a day. As I write this...we are rallying...I will try not to cry and look back. Hindsight is always 20/20.
Good luck.
Andy
PULL-BACK OPPORTUNITY
http://i62.photobucket.com/albums/h101/asunblock/ES15minbuy92006.jpg
So, as you know, I am long. I see a pullback on the 15 minute for a chance buy at 1336...so I bought one. I will not risk alot, but I will hold it for the day highs and then some if it gives me the money.
Good Luck.
Andy
So, as you know, I am long. I see a pullback on the 15 minute for a chance buy at 1336...so I bought one. I will not risk alot, but I will hold it for the day highs and then some if it gives me the money.
Good Luck.
Andy
WEDNESDAY TRADES AND OMISSIONS
Click on the link below for the Daily ES Chart to see what I am talking about.
http://i62.photobucket.com/albums/h101/asunblock/ESLONG91906.jpg
Before I mention my trade, let me first appologize to the 2 or 3 readers I have (not counting my wife....ok, counting my wife) for not writing entries on Monday or Tuesday. It's not that I didn't do anything on those days, it's just that I was scared to write about what I was actually doing! Couldn't have made money then, right....RIGHT! On Monday, I was very frustrated that I haven't made a trade in over 2 weeks, and I searched and searched for a place to buy the S&Ps b/c I felt we were going to make new highs. What ended up happening was that I started initiating trades on a 5 minute chart...DEATH TO ME! It's one of my golden rules, and I broke it, and on Monday, I lost about $625. It was a great lesson, but too expensive for what I am trying to accomplish...SUCCESS.
Tuesday was a LOT better, but still I did not write. Sorry.
As you can see in the chart above, once we broke the downward trend channel, I was looking to get long for the mid-to short term until we reached newer highs-at which point I would rethink my positions and possibly get short for the longer-term. I missed the opportunity to get long last week (as you read below on other entries, I did get long, but couldn't hold on for a multitude of reasons...all of which I will be going over for sure to see how legit. they were).
Anyway, yesterday's pullback to the mid to lower 1320s was prime opportunity, and I jumped on it, buying futures on the way down @ 1324 and 1323.5. I tried buying a 3rd at 1321, but the low was 1322.75. As the afternoon unfolded and ORCL came out with positive news, the markets reversed their direction and moved higher. I added a 3rd ES-mini on the breakout at 1327 and scaled out of that one @ 1331 at the end of the day. I sit with 2 minis now up a decent amount. I will try to hold one of them for new highs if they happen, and possibly get out of the extra one today if it seems we are headed back down.
Stops are pretty close at 1327ish area.
Good luck.
Andy
http://i62.photobucket.com/albums/h101/asunblock/ESLONG91906.jpg
Before I mention my trade, let me first appologize to the 2 or 3 readers I have (not counting my wife....ok, counting my wife) for not writing entries on Monday or Tuesday. It's not that I didn't do anything on those days, it's just that I was scared to write about what I was actually doing! Couldn't have made money then, right....RIGHT! On Monday, I was very frustrated that I haven't made a trade in over 2 weeks, and I searched and searched for a place to buy the S&Ps b/c I felt we were going to make new highs. What ended up happening was that I started initiating trades on a 5 minute chart...DEATH TO ME! It's one of my golden rules, and I broke it, and on Monday, I lost about $625. It was a great lesson, but too expensive for what I am trying to accomplish...SUCCESS.
Tuesday was a LOT better, but still I did not write. Sorry.
As you can see in the chart above, once we broke the downward trend channel, I was looking to get long for the mid-to short term until we reached newer highs-at which point I would rethink my positions and possibly get short for the longer-term. I missed the opportunity to get long last week (as you read below on other entries, I did get long, but couldn't hold on for a multitude of reasons...all of which I will be going over for sure to see how legit. they were).
Anyway, yesterday's pullback to the mid to lower 1320s was prime opportunity, and I jumped on it, buying futures on the way down @ 1324 and 1323.5. I tried buying a 3rd at 1321, but the low was 1322.75. As the afternoon unfolded and ORCL came out with positive news, the markets reversed their direction and moved higher. I added a 3rd ES-mini on the breakout at 1327 and scaled out of that one @ 1331 at the end of the day. I sit with 2 minis now up a decent amount. I will try to hold one of them for new highs if they happen, and possibly get out of the extra one today if it seems we are headed back down.
Stops are pretty close at 1327ish area.
Good luck.
Andy
Friday, September 15, 2006
OUTLOOK
The closer we get to new highs (the Dow is something like 100 points away from all-time highs), the more confident I get in my position of overally negativity. I had mentioned in previous posts that short-term, I feel we can make new highs, but longer-term, I am looking to sell...possibly at those new highs.
The way this year has been going, selling the new highs and buying the new lows would have been a great play...I know it sounds obvious, but usually selling highs and buying lows is the BEST way to LOSE money (if you don't know, now you know!) Anyway, in addition to playing the range game, my charts and indicators and gut (the later of which I listen to last) all point down...and only after we reach a certain level of highs in the markets. That time is closing. I am not going to pinpoint it...I am going to have to take some heat, I am sure. But, while keeping my mind open to the fact that I might be dead wrong, I will be getting short for the long-haul sometime in the future.
In the meantime, I do feel we WILL get to those new highs. So...I would have to say, I will be buying small and using close stops. I would like to get some money out of the upside...and afterall, the trend is up short-term..and the trend is my good aquaintance...not my friend though.
Good luck. And feel free to let me be the guinae pig (sp?).
Andy
The way this year has been going, selling the new highs and buying the new lows would have been a great play...I know it sounds obvious, but usually selling highs and buying lows is the BEST way to LOSE money (if you don't know, now you know!) Anyway, in addition to playing the range game, my charts and indicators and gut (the later of which I listen to last) all point down...and only after we reach a certain level of highs in the markets. That time is closing. I am not going to pinpoint it...I am going to have to take some heat, I am sure. But, while keeping my mind open to the fact that I might be dead wrong, I will be getting short for the long-haul sometime in the future.
In the meantime, I do feel we WILL get to those new highs. So...I would have to say, I will be buying small and using close stops. I would like to get some money out of the upside...and afterall, the trend is up short-term..and the trend is my good aquaintance...not my friend though.
Good luck. And feel free to let me be the guinae pig (sp?).
Andy
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