ATTENTION: CHANGE OF THOUGHT!!!

I have had a change of thought and decided to get out of my short position in the MIDCAP 400 futures. I assumed I was stopped out b/c the overnight high was higher than my stop, but due to a computer "error" on my part, my stop order was canceled (On Wednesday night, I perform an automatic backup of my trading system. The system backs up all my charts and trading strategies, and afterwards, shuts down the computer and restarts...this cancels any working orders)...It was just pure luck that I did not get stopped out for a $330 loss. I got out of the trade when I turned on the computer this morning for a $200 loss.

Here is my thinking: The Russell was in a very similar situation a couple of days ahead of the Midcap. I wrote about possibly taking the long, but decided against it...for many reasons which I talked about (the lack of proper risk/reward profile on the trade, etc...Another reason I didn't take the trade was b/c the Midcap looked similar but for a short. The two are different indexes....but on the whole..they trade somewhat relative to each other. Being long one and short the other makes ok sense for a hedge...but on a common sensical level seemed pretty stupid to me-at least as far as wanting to make money.

Right now, the Russell 2K is still looking bullish and the Midcap broke the recent highs. I looked this morning again, and actually thought about it in bed last night, and right now, it looks more of a buy than a sell.

Since I am confused...I do nothing. Take a small loss...and watch. My gut tells me getting out was a great thing to do. Dicipline dicipline dicipline. The great trades will present themselves. Don't push an ok trade while praying it works out. That NEVER works out.

Good luck.

Andy

MID CAP 400 SHORT

While the Russell 2000 broke out of the 60 min to go long...at least for now, the Midcap looks like it might be decent for a short per the 60-minute. Here it is right at the downward channel top @ the 747 level. The stochastic is coming out of overbought territory and just crossed below the stoch. 80 level . I will hold a stop-loss about $1 above the recent highs of 749.1. The profit goal will be the retest level of the reverse Head & Shoulders pattern of 731ish.

Good Luck.

Andy

RUSSELL UPDATE

So far the breakout has taken hold of the scene in the Russell 2K. The breakout I was suggesting was just above the 710 level, with a no-doubt-fill at about 712. I mentioned I did not take the trade b/c I could not find a decent stop-loss/profit ratio. I thought a good stop would about $600-700, just below recent lows, but no profit point in sight....perhaps that was diciplined, but right now the Russell sits at about 721-722 (about $1000 in the money. That's good, but not even a 2:1...I like to trade at a minimum 3:1 to my money...meaning that if I was going to risk $700...I want to see a potential $2100 gain. I didn't see it. So...until it gets up to the 731 level, I will keep my head up.

Good luck.

Andy

RUSSELL FUTURES BREAK-OUT

It seems that the Russell 2000 Futures have broken out of a semi-long-term 60-min downtrend channel. The timing and stochastics seemed to be right. However, I did not take the trade for the following reasons: 1) I have said that for me to take a trade this week, it would HAVE TO BE PERFECT. And, if a trade isn't perfect, it probably isn't worth taking in the first place. 2) While the price was right, and the risk seemed ok $600ish, I couldn't find a decent risk/reward profile for the trade. I had the stop down, but couldn't find a decent profit expectation. And, without that, risking $600 to make who knows what, was not good enough for me.

Enjoy.

JAPANESE YEN LONG

I am thinking the time is near to enter a long for in the Japanese Yen. I however do not know if I will enter the trade for the simple reason that i have never traded the yen before. I think I will just paper trade this one and if it goes the way I predict, kinda kick myself for missing it, while patting myself on the back for being diciplined and holding back the urge to trade just for the simple facct that I see something.

So..on the weekly chart (see previous Jap. Yen posted chart) the time is pretty good. On a daily, the previous low is here, and the long bullish shadow on the candle stick (july 5th) looks like a lot of support down here (0.854). See Daily chart. While I do think it's ok to buy here per that bullish shadow there (stops below that low)...I think the best timing would be to wait for the 60min chart bearish channel to be broken. It would mean waiting longer and getting in at a worse price, but it would just show more strength if it broke that trend too.

That is what I will do...or for that matter, not do.

Good luck.

Andy

Here it Comes

As I have been writing, I am overall bearish on the LONG-term. I have said however, that I am waiting for the real push up back near the highs to sell. And that would coincide with my downward channel. That area is approaching. I do however caution myself against entering a position that is not at the MOST HIGH PROBIBILITY AREA, given that it is still August and most people are just coming back from vaca. now. In addition, to play devil's advocate, while I have certain areas I would like to get in at in the NQ and ES, I have not yet figured out the best places to get out (via stop losses). Until I establish good areas to get out, I will refrain from posting my entry areas. You all can look at my charts and figure it out for now on your own.

Good luck.

Andy

LONG TERM GOOGLE: SHORT

I am going out on a limb today with a longer-term short on Google. Now, being that 1) I don't often trade stocks (futures only for the most part) and 2) I am by no stretch an expert on the internet sector...I don't suggest anyone go out and short GOOG today. I just go by what my charts tell me and what common sense says.

I have been thinking negative thoughts about google for some time now, possibly due to my frustration in not getting in on the longs when the stock went public not so long ago at what I remember to be about $80(?)... Anyway, this morning I read the Russell Report, as I always do, and in the second paragraph, he writes what I have been thinking for a few weeks now. In short, he talks about EBAY, YAHOO!, AMAZON, ETC...and how they all hit their respective highs and now trade at their lows. All except Google, which is just coming off it's highs.

Now, on my blog about 1 month ago, I wrote of a possible good short opportunity in GOOG between mid to upper $420. The day after I wrote that, it tanked...Clearly b/c everyone is reading my blog! My target of $390 was hit not too long after. And Google has not gotten above $400 since. I had been thinking that all were waiting for the right time to get back in and ride it all the way back up...but isn't that what we all did in 2000? Aren't we still waiting with China.com and Lucent in our portfolios? Well, my chart above shows the recent break of the long-term up trend and possibly the beginning of a new long-term down trend. I WILL NOT BUY GOOGLE...but I MAY SELL IT. I would wait for a high probibility trade at and around the upper line of the new down Channel drawn.

As always...good luck...and do your own research before trading.

Andy

MID CAP SET-UP...

I am seeing this set-up as an EITHER WAY set-up. It's one of those rare, could be an easy long, but if wrong, easy reverser short trade. The overall trend I see in the Midcap index is for sure on the short side. That leads me to want to stay short. The set-up however looks to be one of a long biased one. If we can stay above the lower trendline from the recent lows, and put a stop in just below the most recent low...I think it's fairly safe and could be a nice ride up.

However...Since I see the overall trend as being down, I think a better play MAY be just waiting to see if we can break the lower trend line to take a short pos. in the direction of what I think is the overal trend.

Just Wait

Honestly...I don't see anything yet. I have not made a trade in 4 days, and as sad as it sounds, that's a record for me...and a record I look forward to breaking time and time again!

It's possible that volitility will come back after Labor Day, as most likely everyone else suggests aswell. Until then, I will sit and watch the paint dry.

As I wrote before...I am looking fwd to recent highs to sell, or close to that...more to come later.

Andy

POTENTIAL TRADE COMING UP: JAPANESE YEN...

Nothing so far today, however I do still have tons of charts to sift through. I do notice a possible channel trade setting up some time soon in the Japanese Yen. I would say it's a LONG, but you always have to wait for the best set-up to see if it is anything at all. Look at the chart. It's a weekly chart, so you can't just trade it when the Yen gets to the "buy" point...which here looks to be somewhere around .845-.85ish depending on when it gets there.

Like I have said before, the best trades are those that start on "bigger" charts like a Weekly or a Daily, but then are initiated by finding the best entry on a 60 minute, then futher down to at the VERY LEAST a 15 minute chart. I would almost never initiate a long-term trade off of a weekly or daily or even a 60 minute chart. There is simply just too much room for error. If your account can handle it, then fine, but for me, I'd rather wait for a better intraday set-up to get in.

Good luck. More to come later today for sure.

Andy

2006 WSOP!!!

He finished an AMAZING 23rd in the tourny. Bringing home just under $500K. Not bad.

GOLD FUTURES DAILY CHART

Link to a DISASTER!!!

Scroll down just a tad to view KFed at his best. Oh Man, is it bad!!! It's not like he even danced, or played the piano or sang or did anything remotely talented! If you are white, and you rap, at least be 10% as good as Eminem (who I can't even stand)...not 10% as good as Vanilla Ice. YIKES!!!!

BEST TRADE: Kfed to Hezbollah for a Terrorist to be Named Later

Ok, not market related, but I happened to see the Teen Choice Awards Last night just enough to catch Kfed's debut. OMG!!! It was just so so so so bad. Honestly, I respect Brittney for allowing him to make a fool of himself and feel the pain of the public eye. Please try to catch some clips on some websites. He was just so aweful.

Anyway, back to trading. Sorry to all who do read my blog and were disappointed to find no entries all week AND no email fwds aswell. I have a two-part excuse...and it's a doozy! 1) I had Epi-Lasik surgery last week and couldn't open my eyes for about 3 days and couldn't look at a computer screen for another 2 days. 2) My MS Outlook was not working and it took me until I could see to realize it. I was having my wife fwd all the regular emails daily, but for some reason, while I was receiving emails, my outbox was filling up with unsendable emails!!! So...Some of you may have received those mails today as miraculously Yahoo! has fixed the problem finally.

Overall market feel. Clearly I have to catch up to the action as of late, but my mind is swaying more to the longer-term downside. We have made a serious and strong rebound after breaking that 2 year uptrend, but honestly, I expected just that.

It's possible in my view that we can see new yearly highs sometime soon, but that only would reach a point where I see the markets hitting my downtrend channels that I have drawn...especially in the Nasdaq futures. Keep in mind..I trade futures...it may make a difference!

So, short-term...who knows...could go up some. But I am not taking longs. I am waiting for trades to set up, and I don't see anything yet todya. The one trade I do see coming up is in Gold Futures (YGZ06).

Long long term UP, short term DOWN. I did call a nice short the night before it happened 2 weeks ago and it made a nice profit of $15 ($500ish per 1 lot, vs the $60-$90 stop-loss I suggested). That downtrend on the daily chart is still intact, but b/c the Long long term trend is still up, and stochastics are approaching oversold and we are nearing the upper line of the downward channel, I am weary to sell it again. It could be an ok play, but if we break to the upside, it can be the contiuation of the bigger up trend.

I will update this later with pics and charts. For now...enjoy and let me know what you think.

Andy

Sell Gold? Imagine that!

Considering that I trade gold all the time, and mostly from the long side per my system in gold, it is rare that I take a trade in gold based on my charts (like I do in every other market). But, alas, I see a possible trade and it's from the short side. Here it is...

Gold has come back quite a bit since it's sell-off in June. It's right at the fib. retracement levels between 31 and 62%. It's above 50%, so some might not feel like selling, but per my trend line, it's right there at resistance and the Stoch are around 77. A sale of YG near the close of today's price of 661 would be perfect, but I would wait to see where we trade tomorrow.

As I have said before, I NEVER enter a trade per a daily chart. I always look futher intraday for entries. In this case, looking at the 60, 30, 15 and 5 minute charts to fine tune entries, or to find ways to dissuade short entries is smartest.

Intraday today, there was a huge spike up to around the $664 level....ideally, a sale around there is best with stops somewhere close above there.

Good luck trading.

Andy

Vacation/Sorry

Sorry, everybody. I forgot to write that I would be taking a vacation!!! I am back...almost. Took a week off and then we had a wedding in Gainseville, FL. (Congrats, Julie and Darren!) and finally our 1/2 hour layover in Dallas became a 7 1/2 hour delay. Got home too late last night to make it in today, so working from home today-should be back in full force tomorrow.

Lot's of great things coming up in my blog this week. While on vacation (and btw, I highly recommend a vacation every now and then for traders, it helps clear your head of all those trading obstacles), I wrote a lot about my rules and different trading ideas. I can't wait to share them.

Another very cool thing is that my friend Robby Roseman, who qualified for this second str8 year online for the WSOP, is now in his 2nd week of live play at the NH championship and has outlasted over 8000 people to make it to the last 45! He's got a decent stack of 1.8plus million chips and is guarenteed to cash in at a nice trade profit of $250K. Knowing him, he won't be happy unless he gets to the final table....I see it as a possibility. Go Robby! Good luck!!!!

Andy