BLIND WRITING

Let me just start out by saying I have not looked at a chart since Monday or Tuesday...I think that's a record for me. So, anything I might say about the market is totally based on previous opinions and research and not based on any technical charting done today. That being said, here goes...

Like I have written recently, I am not overall bullish on the market. Recently I was wanting to be long, and as you may have read, I got long, made some profits and got tricked out of my positions by fake outs and lack of dicipline, or simply tyring to be too safe. Anyway, continuing on...I had said that after I took those longs for a ride, I wanted to get short at or near the newer highs. Those have occured, so I would now be looking for places to get short. NOW, I AM NOT SAYING I WOULD SHORT THE MARKET HERE...ESPECIALLY SINCE I HAVEN'T LOOKED AT A CHART IN NEARLY A WEEK! What I am saying, is that I would look for a place.....I would look at my weekly and daily charts to see when and where a short might occur, and I would take it. Let me reiterate...I WOULD NOT TAKE A SHORT BASED ON A 60 MINUTE OR SHORTER TIME-FRAMED CHART!!! Only on a weekly or a daily...more so on a Weekly.

So...when will that happen? Not sure. I am out all next week studying for my Series 7 test, which I plan to take and pass with flying colors. But, man,this crap is tough...but I must admit...VERY INTERESTING AND COOL. I would be very scared if I didn't think this stuff was cool and interesting...That would indicate I am barking up the wrong tree as far as my career..did that make any sense?

Anyway, wish me luck..b/c I wish you all luck trading.

Andy

HOW I AM FEELING RIGHT NOW...

Anyone play poker? If so...then you will know how I feel. Right now, being out of my longs and more importantly, not getting long at 1322 yesterday a.m. like I wanted to is akin to this: Having KK pre-flop...the guy in front of me raises, I re-raise and he goes all in....Something in me says he has AA, and even though I have great pot odds, I fold....He flips over his 77.

I then ask to see the flop, and 2 kings come out!

That's where I am right now. I think I wrote yesterday about the my amazement that the S&Ps weren't trading in the 1340s...and were still in the lower 1320s...Well, me and the rest of the losers are on the sidelines! And look at them now...1342. BLAAAAAAAAAAAAh.

Good Luck.

Andy

Scalping

Let me just reiterate what part of trading I hate. I hate scalping. I am not good at it, it makes me miserable, and it contradicts everything I know about my style of trading. I did it today, and I lost money.

Lesson learned. Please please please learn from my mistake. Know your style of trading. Know what type of trades make you happy and which make you go insane. I am hoping this will be the last time I do that to myself.

Good Luck.

Andy

I will be studying most of the days coming up, as I have some Series exams to take (7, 63, et al.) A lot of these exams I had years ago and have let expire. I didn't need any of the to be a trader on the floor. Now, however....I do need them. So, wish me luck.

Andy

THE MOST IMPORTANT EXPERT...

The most important expert is you. Listen to your own ideas. If you followed or shadowed the best trader, most likely you would fail miserably. That's because you don't know why that trader is doing what he/she is doing, you don't have the same risk tolerance as that trader, etc.

The lesson I learned this a.m. is this: All the smart guys in the world, and by smart guys, I mean men and women, can have all the reasons in the world to be short or long, but they aren't your reasons. I was slightly clouded this a.m. and moronishly instead of taking to the sidelines or just holding my thoughts, I changed my thoughts. I posted earlier how I changed my disposition to slightly bearish due to the fact that the market failed to rally. Most likely, as I watch it rally now, bouncing off my ideal entry points, the market was shaking out those unconfident longs...the longs who were listening to everyone else. The longs who didn't really know for sure that they wanted to be long. I am missing out on this nice long rally b/c I listened to everyone other than Andy.

Good luck doing asI say, not as I do.

Andy

QUESTION: WHO IS THE MAN?

The man would be he who doesn't second guess himself. I am going to make it my resolution for the rest of the year to try to be "the man". Second guessing only confuses you. It's ok to change your mind based on new information, but without anything new coming to the table, second guessing is just that...guessing.

Just as I was rueing (sp?) getting out of my longs, we broke hard and we sit right near the levels I wanted to origionally buy at (1322ish). And this time, I don't feel like buying. Infact, this time, I am sitting tight and have a slightly bearish outlook. We have failed misserably to get past those recent highs, and we were so darn close. We had a great $15 dollar lead in the S&Ps from my good long entry points, and still nothing great to speak of. I thought for sure we would continue today's open enthusiasm and rally into the 1340s. But alas, we sit near last weeks lows. Gartman is short (via long puts) and while I don't follow anyone else's advice...he's smart, so I do listen to his logic. Richard Russell is for sure not a bull these days. And again, while I don't listen to others, if I had to listen to one person...Russell would be the dude (besides me, that is).

I would also like to suggest a good trading blog read. http://www.dehtrader.com/

His name is Glenn. And although I am not sure if he reads my blog, I read his. He's very honest. Unlike most, he posts all his trades...good and bad. I think that's very very important.

So....enjoy...Good Luck.

Andy

SAD THAT I AM FLAT...

The opposite of buyers remorse in trading is "I was a wuss" remorse. Someone please remind me of all the good reasons I did NOT get back into my longs on Friday. I can't tell you how many times I bought and sold 1321.5s and 1322.75s!!! I will have to read and reread my blog for all those smart reasons I gave myself.

Someone comment!!!

Me (good luck!)

ON SECOND THOUGHT...

...Something tells me to just back off and come back after the weekend! That's what I am going to do. It was a good week..let's keep it that way.

Phew!

Have a great weekend/Holiday.

Andy

RE-BUY?

http://i62.photobucket.com/albums/h101/asunblock/ES60minRe-buy.jpg
http://i62.photobucket.com/albums/h101/asunblock/ESDailyRe-Buy.jpg

I am considering getting back into my longs here on Friday, the eve of Rosh Hashanna. The level we are at in the S&Ps is exactly where I wanted to get in last week, the Daily and 60 minute charts look attractive per my trend support lines, and getting long would be in line with my thoughts that we are still headed to newer highs.

A few things that stand in my way are the following: 1) Holliday weekend and a weekend at that...I hate having positions over the weekend in a time where anything in the world that can happen, usually does on a daily basis. The thought of carrying a position with the inability to have a stop in makes me uneasy. The flip side of that is this: If I am every going to have long-term positions on, I have to get over this! 2) I am clouded slightly with my opinion that we are going to make newer highs and then reverse to long term lows. This opinion might be standing in my way of seeing what is really happening...which is something other than a clear long right here. 3) The Dow DID just make almost new highs, or at least reach the old ones...isn't that enough for my taste? No, but how do I know that for sure...

The answer is, I don't! I really do just have to go with what the charts are telling me, and right here and now, it looks like a long is not a terrible play. I will decide and let you all know (you all, being me, myself and I).

Good luck.

Andy

CHAMPION!!!

I am out of all my trades, and it's the smart/safe move. I had wanted to hold all my trades for the longer-term, but the fed day proved to be a frustration. I stood a chance of giving away most of my gains on stops, only to watch it move back and forth. I am now flat, and am sure we will rally now that I am out of the longs!

good trade though. Up$700...gold about $200. Not bad for a day. As I write this...we are rallying...I will try not to cry and look back. Hindsight is always 20/20.

Good luck.

Andy

PULL-BACK OPPORTUNITY

http://i62.photobucket.com/albums/h101/asunblock/ES15minbuy92006.jpg

So, as you know, I am long. I see a pullback on the 15 minute for a chance buy at 1336...so I bought one. I will not risk alot, but I will hold it for the day highs and then some if it gives me the money.

Good Luck.

Andy

WEDNESDAY TRADES AND OMISSIONS

Click on the link below for the Daily ES Chart to see what I am talking about.

http://i62.photobucket.com/albums/h101/asunblock/ESLONG91906.jpg
Before I mention my trade, let me first appologize to the 2 or 3 readers I have (not counting my wife....ok, counting my wife) for not writing entries on Monday or Tuesday. It's not that I didn't do anything on those days, it's just that I was scared to write about what I was actually doing! Couldn't have made money then, right....RIGHT! On Monday, I was very frustrated that I haven't made a trade in over 2 weeks, and I searched and searched for a place to buy the S&Ps b/c I felt we were going to make new highs. What ended up happening was that I started initiating trades on a 5 minute chart...DEATH TO ME! It's one of my golden rules, and I broke it, and on Monday, I lost about $625. It was a great lesson, but too expensive for what I am trying to accomplish...SUCCESS.

Tuesday was a LOT better, but still I did not write. Sorry.

As you can see in the chart above, once we broke the downward trend channel, I was looking to get long for the mid-to short term until we reached newer highs-at which point I would rethink my positions and possibly get short for the longer-term. I missed the opportunity to get long last week (as you read below on other entries, I did get long, but couldn't hold on for a multitude of reasons...all of which I will be going over for sure to see how legit. they were).

Anyway, yesterday's pullback to the mid to lower 1320s was prime opportunity, and I jumped on it, buying futures on the way down @ 1324 and 1323.5. I tried buying a 3rd at 1321, but the low was 1322.75. As the afternoon unfolded and ORCL came out with positive news, the markets reversed their direction and moved higher. I added a 3rd ES-mini on the breakout at 1327 and scaled out of that one @ 1331 at the end of the day. I sit with 2 minis now up a decent amount. I will try to hold one of them for new highs if they happen, and possibly get out of the extra one today if it seems we are headed back down.

Stops are pretty close at 1327ish area.

Good luck.

Andy

OUTLOOK

The closer we get to new highs (the Dow is something like 100 points away from all-time highs), the more confident I get in my position of overally negativity. I had mentioned in previous posts that short-term, I feel we can make new highs, but longer-term, I am looking to sell...possibly at those new highs.

The way this year has been going, selling the new highs and buying the new lows would have been a great play...I know it sounds obvious, but usually selling highs and buying lows is the BEST way to LOSE money (if you don't know, now you know!) Anyway, in addition to playing the range game, my charts and indicators and gut (the later of which I listen to last) all point down...and only after we reach a certain level of highs in the markets. That time is closing. I am not going to pinpoint it...I am going to have to take some heat, I am sure. But, while keeping my mind open to the fact that I might be dead wrong, I will be getting short for the long-haul sometime in the future.

In the meantime, I do feel we WILL get to those new highs. So...I would have to say, I will be buying small and using close stops. I would like to get some money out of the upside...and afterall, the trend is up short-term..and the trend is my good aquaintance...not my friend though.

Good luck. And feel free to let me be the guinae pig (sp?).

Andy

TEMPTING....VERY VERY TEMPTING

The S&Ps seem to be at such a tempting pivot point. I am waivering between going long and going short...and each makes perfect sense to me for so many reasons! For all you options traders out there....a nice Straddle would do well here if I am right that the market is about to make a move in one direction or the other.

The 1323.50 level is a nice point where I am sure floor traders are either long from, or will be buying. If on a 15 minute chart we close below that level, then I think we will be going lower. Look out for the fake out though. My daily chart from yesterday's post shows we closed right at the top channel resistance line. We really should be waiting to find a place to trade today. THE ONLY REASON I AM NOT PUTTING A TRADE ON THIS SECOND, IS BECAUSE I CAN'T FIGURE OUT WHAT DIRECTION I WANT TO TRADE IN.

Better off to sit and watch and learn for next time, then to guess. Guessing and being right is just as bad as guessing and being wrong. If I guess and I am right, I make money now, my confidence for next time is higher, and I am going to lose more when my guess fails.

Good Luck.

Andy

*****P.S. Obviously this means I got out of the short from yesterday. Sorry I forgot to mention it. Scratched the trade (no win/no loss=win!)
The Stoch climed above 50%, which was the level I was looking to stop myself out of. In addition, on the whole, the trade looks more of a watch, then a trade.

Andy

WHEN THE SHORTS ARE ALL SQUEEZED OUT...

Click on the link below for the ES DAILY CHART!!!
http://i62.photobucket.com/albums/h101/asunblock/SPShort9.jpg
...I am getting short per my S&P emini Daily chart. I have been talking so much about getting short, but I really had to wait for a reason and a good risk/reward ratio. I see getting short here near the day's high of 1321 a good play. It's possible I am not waiting for the best entry near 1328ish, but I plan to add one near there and have a stop close to the 1330 level.

What I like about this trade is not just the downward channel that I have drawn, but the fact that the stochastics have been below 50% and are still below 40%, rallying somewhat as the market goes up-on light volume I might add. I will try to keep an eye on volume and the stochastic. Below avg. vol. and below 50% stoch....I like my trade. In addition, the NASDAQ has skyrocketted today, up 40pts. and the S&Ps, though up, are not nearly as explosive as the techs. It's taking dicipline not to add until the 1328 level.

My target for this trade is a longer-term mid 1260s level. The risk/reward profile is -$700/+$2300. That is pretty much ideal for me. If it does go my way, and does down the road get near my target, I will move stops down to lock in profits and consider moving my target lower as well.

Good luck. More later.

Andy

BLAH

So as it turns out...I pretty much folded the best hand with really good pot odds!!!

Needless to say, the short would have been fairly nice.

Remorsefully but diciplined,

Andy

UPDATE UPDATE UPDATE

UPDATE UPDATE UPDATE!!!

Something is telling me this short is not right. I may kick myself later for getting out before my stop, but I am out. $20 profit...clearly not what I was going for, but I have a bad feeling about the trade...almost like that feeling when you have AQ, and a Q on the flop shows, but the guy ahead of you goes all-in, and you for some reason feel you are beat.....well that's what I am am feeling. He may only have QJ, but I don't want to go out on this hand.

Andy

FIRST TRADE OF SEPTEMBER...

My weekly trend is down, and on the Daily chart, the timing looks good. The stochastic is heading down, and below 50% level. I am short the NASDAQ 100 futures. I much rather would have liked to get in at the high of the day around 1612, but that opportunity may present itself again later today, where I will add my to my 1 lot position (short from 1609). My stop for now is $1 off the high at 1613, but I will adjust it if and when my second short gets lifted.

As for now, I will be looking for proper outs on the stop and target levels.

Good luck.



P.S. I am having trouble loading pics, so I will try to get the charts on this trade up shortly.

GOLD FUTURES SCALP

In keeping with my new trading rule of only taking trades I write about...I want to write about the long I just took in the gold. I am thinking more boredom made me trade this than logic. I am about 5 ticks away from my ridiculous $74 losing trade stop. I am holding it if it takes off for 3 times my lose (roughly $210). Not sure I should have taken the trade. And since I am so close to the stop...I will not get out unless the stop is hit.

Anyway, the basis of the trade is this: the gold has made a nice low for the day, and has bounced back and closed above it's overnight low (I usually look at overnight highs and lows for good support and resistance levels...as do most traders). So, I am long from around 598.5....only risking about $2.


Good luck.

Me

UPDATE.... Got stopped out....Surprise surprise! At the low of the move (596.3) for a loss of $77.

THE INCREDIBLE BOREDOM...

...has me shaking to trade. It seems like forever since I place my last trade (a long in the Midcap 400 futures). The lack of trading is playing mind games with me and my overtrading addiction. I am happy to say, I think I may have kicked the bad habit finally after all these years. Perhaps it was all those days I had to do nothing while my eyes healed from Epi-lasik surgery. I thought long and hard hour after hour each day about the bad trades I have made in my career. I thought about how I wanted to trade less and make more.

Whatever it was that got me to where I am today, it feels a lot better being bored than overtrading feels. I highly recommend 1) Lasik, 2) not overtrading, and 3) writing down EVERYTHING...goals, rules, and thoughts.

That's my advice for this week.

Good luck.

Andy

I HAVE NOTHING TO SAY

...but that never stopped me before! This is what I mean when I say I would rather the pains of trading be the boredom rather than the same terrible mistakes traders make on a daily basis. That is my goal this year; to make my biggest complaint be boredom, not loss of money.

I fear it may be days before i see something tradeable, but that's ok.

I had said for a while now that I was looking to get short..that time has come and gone. Missed opportunities that really didn't present themselves boldly enough to act upon. Then the other day, I got long midcap, and thought I should ditch my long-term strategy and get long everything...Glad I didn't jump on that ridiculous impluse!

Doing nothing at times ends up being the best trade. Afterall, making money, not trading, is the goal.

Good luck.

Andy

KEEP AHEAD OF BAD HABITS!!!

I wanted badly to get long yesterday. As I literally ran from the office door to my computer screen and logged in, I felt my heart pound harder and harder as I was sure I was going to see the market another $5 higher...making me rue even more the fact that I puked a long for a $12.50 profit only to watch it skyrocket.

That heart pounding...that need to get long...or short...that sense that the market WAS FOR SURE MOVING HIGHER....this is sign I need to take a step back. Not for a day, or a week, just a pause...to think and remember that the good trades will come. NEVER FORCE A TRADE. It's ok to be flat for 10 days if nothing presents itself. I forget that sometimes and go right back to my wicked days of overtrading. When I traded in the S&P futures pit, my trade checker, Billy, HATED ME. He checked trades for a few different traders, and in about 1 minute I could hand him a stack of filled out cards 10 times the size of all his other traders put together. If I was in the pit, I was trading. If the market was open, I was flying. Honestly, if it was 9am and I wasn't drenched in sweat, I wasn't working. And I loved it.

Every trader will attest to the fact that overtrading is one of the many ways to drain your account quickly. And I was the best at it. So, anytime I can feel the symptoms coming on...I like to nip them in the bud, so to speak...take a step back and remember...I don't have to trade.

So...nothing yet.

What's on the mind?

A few things. I think we are heading lower....but not sure when. I am flip-flopping, and that's and I can see myself easily chopping myself up if I get in the market right now. I will watch for a little.

Good luck watching or trading.

Andy

IF YOU WANTED TO GET LONG...

...then the time might have been this morning as Friday's close above my downward channel top seemed to confirm a positive breakout. As far as timing a perfect entry, you have to look intra day today. 1312 looks like where the pt. of entry should be on the daily, but the low of the day as of 9am (pt). I did get long at 1310.75, but wussed out of the trade right away b/c I felt I didn't put enough time and research into the trade. It seemed too impulsive when I initiated it. Unfortunately, that may have been my only chance. However, since OVERTRADING has always been my biggest obstacle to success, I can't be mad at passing up trades, especially for good reasons like not doing enough research.

Hope you all had better luck and more time than me this morning.

Good Luck.

Andy

Successful Trade!

The "gut reverse", as I like to call it in the midcap 400 futures turned out to be a success. Getting out for a $200 loss, and getting long turned into a $700 winner. Although the trade still looks good, and normally I would have no reason to get out, I am out of the trade for a net profit of $500
(-200+700) becuase the long weekend could bring any number of surprises. It's better to be rue getting out of a trade too early b/c of good reasons, then to rue not getting out soon enough b/c of bad reason. Anyone get that?!

Anyway, have a great holiday weekend. I will be in Boston for a college friend's wedding. Congratulations, Josh and Debrah.

Good Luck.

Andy

YOUR GUT

While trading with your gut is not something I would recommend, listening to your gut is A MUST!!!

Yesterday I listened to my gut and got out of a short position in the Midcap. There were plenty of things I found after thinking long and hard that supported my gut's feeling, but it was my gut that gets the credit. Anyway, I ended up reversing and getting long, and so far so good in the LONG MIDCAP POSITION. The entry in the Midcap was 748. While I tried to buy another just at my "PERFECT ENTRY POINT" of 747.4, I was unable. It has yet to go against me. My stop point is for now, 745.1, below yesterday's low. I may move it up today. My profit point for now is WAY ABOVE at 772. I may adjust as it is friday and a long weekend, and I don't want to have any positions over the weekend, especially such a long one.

I will watch today, and possibly I may get out if we can't get above 759.

Good luck.

Andy