How true, Trademaster J, how true!...But

Trade Master J said...
It seems as though you mind as well be blind looking at charts..,The market is making all time highs and you are looking to get short??!!! LOLWhere did you learn to trade anyways
7:22 PM

Very good point, Jam Master. However, I am sure I wrote somewhere in my blog that I was not going to just sell for selling's sake. And certainly I am not married to my position either. With that said, I do still feel the way I feel . Every trader has his or her own time frame. Mine is longer term. While i have been away from my charts for over a week (still studying for Series 7-taking a class...) I doubt things have changed too much in the world. One thing I did learn from trading on the floor for 7 years is this....THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND. And, Trademaster, you are correct here. We are making record highs and it seems dumb to sell into rallies. However, I don't really think this is a HUGE RALLY with TONS OF VOLUME behind it. In addition, it is a long while since we have been up here, and the 11725 level just doesn't seem SO HIGH to me. Back then, I thought we would be at 15000! So, back to these levels...not really sure it means so much. I do think it's funny how we are at the highs while we are all so negative. But just funny, not wrong! NOW...If there was one more thing that trumped that great adage of 'the trend is your friend', it is this. LISTEN TO YOURSELF...NOONE'S OPINION MATTERS MORE THAN YOUR OWN!!! That GELLER-ADAGE is the most important. I have gotten out of too many good trades and not taken too many others b/c I let someone else's ideas get in my head. I don't let that happen anymore.

One more thing I want to say about this year's market. If you had sold the market each time it made a new high and bought it each time it made a new low, you would have done just fine. We have been range-bound all year. And, this opinion of mine wasn't "blind". Not in the least. I called this move up to the top when we reached the bottom. (SEE PAST BLOGS). I had been looking for places to get long for months now, and if you continue to peruse thru the past blogs, you will see that I did scalp on the long side quite a few times. That scalping is now done, and I wait for signals that we will turn down. Until those signal occur though, I sit on the side.

Good luck, and thank you for the posts. Believe it or not, I appreicate those "negative" posts even more than the positive "I think you are right" posts. They make me come back to earth.

Andy

BLIND WRITING

Let me just start out by saying I have not looked at a chart since Monday or Tuesday...I think that's a record for me. So, anything I might say about the market is totally based on previous opinions and research and not based on any technical charting done today. That being said, here goes...

Like I have written recently, I am not overall bullish on the market. Recently I was wanting to be long, and as you may have read, I got long, made some profits and got tricked out of my positions by fake outs and lack of dicipline, or simply tyring to be too safe. Anyway, continuing on...I had said that after I took those longs for a ride, I wanted to get short at or near the newer highs. Those have occured, so I would now be looking for places to get short. NOW, I AM NOT SAYING I WOULD SHORT THE MARKET HERE...ESPECIALLY SINCE I HAVEN'T LOOKED AT A CHART IN NEARLY A WEEK! What I am saying, is that I would look for a place.....I would look at my weekly and daily charts to see when and where a short might occur, and I would take it. Let me reiterate...I WOULD NOT TAKE A SHORT BASED ON A 60 MINUTE OR SHORTER TIME-FRAMED CHART!!! Only on a weekly or a daily...more so on a Weekly.

So...when will that happen? Not sure. I am out all next week studying for my Series 7 test, which I plan to take and pass with flying colors. But, man,this crap is tough...but I must admit...VERY INTERESTING AND COOL. I would be very scared if I didn't think this stuff was cool and interesting...That would indicate I am barking up the wrong tree as far as my career..did that make any sense?

Anyway, wish me luck..b/c I wish you all luck trading.

Andy

HOW I AM FEELING RIGHT NOW...

Anyone play poker? If so...then you will know how I feel. Right now, being out of my longs and more importantly, not getting long at 1322 yesterday a.m. like I wanted to is akin to this: Having KK pre-flop...the guy in front of me raises, I re-raise and he goes all in....Something in me says he has AA, and even though I have great pot odds, I fold....He flips over his 77.

I then ask to see the flop, and 2 kings come out!

That's where I am right now. I think I wrote yesterday about the my amazement that the S&Ps weren't trading in the 1340s...and were still in the lower 1320s...Well, me and the rest of the losers are on the sidelines! And look at them now...1342. BLAAAAAAAAAAAAh.

Good Luck.

Andy

Scalping

Let me just reiterate what part of trading I hate. I hate scalping. I am not good at it, it makes me miserable, and it contradicts everything I know about my style of trading. I did it today, and I lost money.

Lesson learned. Please please please learn from my mistake. Know your style of trading. Know what type of trades make you happy and which make you go insane. I am hoping this will be the last time I do that to myself.

Good Luck.

Andy

I will be studying most of the days coming up, as I have some Series exams to take (7, 63, et al.) A lot of these exams I had years ago and have let expire. I didn't need any of the to be a trader on the floor. Now, however....I do need them. So, wish me luck.

Andy

THE MOST IMPORTANT EXPERT...

The most important expert is you. Listen to your own ideas. If you followed or shadowed the best trader, most likely you would fail miserably. That's because you don't know why that trader is doing what he/she is doing, you don't have the same risk tolerance as that trader, etc.

The lesson I learned this a.m. is this: All the smart guys in the world, and by smart guys, I mean men and women, can have all the reasons in the world to be short or long, but they aren't your reasons. I was slightly clouded this a.m. and moronishly instead of taking to the sidelines or just holding my thoughts, I changed my thoughts. I posted earlier how I changed my disposition to slightly bearish due to the fact that the market failed to rally. Most likely, as I watch it rally now, bouncing off my ideal entry points, the market was shaking out those unconfident longs...the longs who were listening to everyone else. The longs who didn't really know for sure that they wanted to be long. I am missing out on this nice long rally b/c I listened to everyone other than Andy.

Good luck doing asI say, not as I do.

Andy

QUESTION: WHO IS THE MAN?

The man would be he who doesn't second guess himself. I am going to make it my resolution for the rest of the year to try to be "the man". Second guessing only confuses you. It's ok to change your mind based on new information, but without anything new coming to the table, second guessing is just that...guessing.

Just as I was rueing (sp?) getting out of my longs, we broke hard and we sit right near the levels I wanted to origionally buy at (1322ish). And this time, I don't feel like buying. Infact, this time, I am sitting tight and have a slightly bearish outlook. We have failed misserably to get past those recent highs, and we were so darn close. We had a great $15 dollar lead in the S&Ps from my good long entry points, and still nothing great to speak of. I thought for sure we would continue today's open enthusiasm and rally into the 1340s. But alas, we sit near last weeks lows. Gartman is short (via long puts) and while I don't follow anyone else's advice...he's smart, so I do listen to his logic. Richard Russell is for sure not a bull these days. And again, while I don't listen to others, if I had to listen to one person...Russell would be the dude (besides me, that is).

I would also like to suggest a good trading blog read. http://www.dehtrader.com/

His name is Glenn. And although I am not sure if he reads my blog, I read his. He's very honest. Unlike most, he posts all his trades...good and bad. I think that's very very important.

So....enjoy...Good Luck.

Andy

SAD THAT I AM FLAT...

The opposite of buyers remorse in trading is "I was a wuss" remorse. Someone please remind me of all the good reasons I did NOT get back into my longs on Friday. I can't tell you how many times I bought and sold 1321.5s and 1322.75s!!! I will have to read and reread my blog for all those smart reasons I gave myself.

Someone comment!!!

Me (good luck!)

ON SECOND THOUGHT...

...Something tells me to just back off and come back after the weekend! That's what I am going to do. It was a good week..let's keep it that way.

Phew!

Have a great weekend/Holiday.

Andy

RE-BUY?

http://i62.photobucket.com/albums/h101/asunblock/ES60minRe-buy.jpg
http://i62.photobucket.com/albums/h101/asunblock/ESDailyRe-Buy.jpg

I am considering getting back into my longs here on Friday, the eve of Rosh Hashanna. The level we are at in the S&Ps is exactly where I wanted to get in last week, the Daily and 60 minute charts look attractive per my trend support lines, and getting long would be in line with my thoughts that we are still headed to newer highs.

A few things that stand in my way are the following: 1) Holliday weekend and a weekend at that...I hate having positions over the weekend in a time where anything in the world that can happen, usually does on a daily basis. The thought of carrying a position with the inability to have a stop in makes me uneasy. The flip side of that is this: If I am every going to have long-term positions on, I have to get over this! 2) I am clouded slightly with my opinion that we are going to make newer highs and then reverse to long term lows. This opinion might be standing in my way of seeing what is really happening...which is something other than a clear long right here. 3) The Dow DID just make almost new highs, or at least reach the old ones...isn't that enough for my taste? No, but how do I know that for sure...

The answer is, I don't! I really do just have to go with what the charts are telling me, and right here and now, it looks like a long is not a terrible play. I will decide and let you all know (you all, being me, myself and I).

Good luck.

Andy

CHAMPION!!!

I am out of all my trades, and it's the smart/safe move. I had wanted to hold all my trades for the longer-term, but the fed day proved to be a frustration. I stood a chance of giving away most of my gains on stops, only to watch it move back and forth. I am now flat, and am sure we will rally now that I am out of the longs!

good trade though. Up$700...gold about $200. Not bad for a day. As I write this...we are rallying...I will try not to cry and look back. Hindsight is always 20/20.

Good luck.

Andy

PULL-BACK OPPORTUNITY

http://i62.photobucket.com/albums/h101/asunblock/ES15minbuy92006.jpg

So, as you know, I am long. I see a pullback on the 15 minute for a chance buy at 1336...so I bought one. I will not risk alot, but I will hold it for the day highs and then some if it gives me the money.

Good Luck.

Andy

WEDNESDAY TRADES AND OMISSIONS

Click on the link below for the Daily ES Chart to see what I am talking about.

http://i62.photobucket.com/albums/h101/asunblock/ESLONG91906.jpg
Before I mention my trade, let me first appologize to the 2 or 3 readers I have (not counting my wife....ok, counting my wife) for not writing entries on Monday or Tuesday. It's not that I didn't do anything on those days, it's just that I was scared to write about what I was actually doing! Couldn't have made money then, right....RIGHT! On Monday, I was very frustrated that I haven't made a trade in over 2 weeks, and I searched and searched for a place to buy the S&Ps b/c I felt we were going to make new highs. What ended up happening was that I started initiating trades on a 5 minute chart...DEATH TO ME! It's one of my golden rules, and I broke it, and on Monday, I lost about $625. It was a great lesson, but too expensive for what I am trying to accomplish...SUCCESS.

Tuesday was a LOT better, but still I did not write. Sorry.

As you can see in the chart above, once we broke the downward trend channel, I was looking to get long for the mid-to short term until we reached newer highs-at which point I would rethink my positions and possibly get short for the longer-term. I missed the opportunity to get long last week (as you read below on other entries, I did get long, but couldn't hold on for a multitude of reasons...all of which I will be going over for sure to see how legit. they were).

Anyway, yesterday's pullback to the mid to lower 1320s was prime opportunity, and I jumped on it, buying futures on the way down @ 1324 and 1323.5. I tried buying a 3rd at 1321, but the low was 1322.75. As the afternoon unfolded and ORCL came out with positive news, the markets reversed their direction and moved higher. I added a 3rd ES-mini on the breakout at 1327 and scaled out of that one @ 1331 at the end of the day. I sit with 2 minis now up a decent amount. I will try to hold one of them for new highs if they happen, and possibly get out of the extra one today if it seems we are headed back down.

Stops are pretty close at 1327ish area.

Good luck.

Andy

OUTLOOK

The closer we get to new highs (the Dow is something like 100 points away from all-time highs), the more confident I get in my position of overally negativity. I had mentioned in previous posts that short-term, I feel we can make new highs, but longer-term, I am looking to sell...possibly at those new highs.

The way this year has been going, selling the new highs and buying the new lows would have been a great play...I know it sounds obvious, but usually selling highs and buying lows is the BEST way to LOSE money (if you don't know, now you know!) Anyway, in addition to playing the range game, my charts and indicators and gut (the later of which I listen to last) all point down...and only after we reach a certain level of highs in the markets. That time is closing. I am not going to pinpoint it...I am going to have to take some heat, I am sure. But, while keeping my mind open to the fact that I might be dead wrong, I will be getting short for the long-haul sometime in the future.

In the meantime, I do feel we WILL get to those new highs. So...I would have to say, I will be buying small and using close stops. I would like to get some money out of the upside...and afterall, the trend is up short-term..and the trend is my good aquaintance...not my friend though.

Good luck. And feel free to let me be the guinae pig (sp?).

Andy

TEMPTING....VERY VERY TEMPTING

The S&Ps seem to be at such a tempting pivot point. I am waivering between going long and going short...and each makes perfect sense to me for so many reasons! For all you options traders out there....a nice Straddle would do well here if I am right that the market is about to make a move in one direction or the other.

The 1323.50 level is a nice point where I am sure floor traders are either long from, or will be buying. If on a 15 minute chart we close below that level, then I think we will be going lower. Look out for the fake out though. My daily chart from yesterday's post shows we closed right at the top channel resistance line. We really should be waiting to find a place to trade today. THE ONLY REASON I AM NOT PUTTING A TRADE ON THIS SECOND, IS BECAUSE I CAN'T FIGURE OUT WHAT DIRECTION I WANT TO TRADE IN.

Better off to sit and watch and learn for next time, then to guess. Guessing and being right is just as bad as guessing and being wrong. If I guess and I am right, I make money now, my confidence for next time is higher, and I am going to lose more when my guess fails.

Good Luck.

Andy

*****P.S. Obviously this means I got out of the short from yesterday. Sorry I forgot to mention it. Scratched the trade (no win/no loss=win!)
The Stoch climed above 50%, which was the level I was looking to stop myself out of. In addition, on the whole, the trade looks more of a watch, then a trade.

Andy

WHEN THE SHORTS ARE ALL SQUEEZED OUT...

Click on the link below for the ES DAILY CHART!!!
http://i62.photobucket.com/albums/h101/asunblock/SPShort9.jpg
...I am getting short per my S&P emini Daily chart. I have been talking so much about getting short, but I really had to wait for a reason and a good risk/reward ratio. I see getting short here near the day's high of 1321 a good play. It's possible I am not waiting for the best entry near 1328ish, but I plan to add one near there and have a stop close to the 1330 level.

What I like about this trade is not just the downward channel that I have drawn, but the fact that the stochastics have been below 50% and are still below 40%, rallying somewhat as the market goes up-on light volume I might add. I will try to keep an eye on volume and the stochastic. Below avg. vol. and below 50% stoch....I like my trade. In addition, the NASDAQ has skyrocketted today, up 40pts. and the S&Ps, though up, are not nearly as explosive as the techs. It's taking dicipline not to add until the 1328 level.

My target for this trade is a longer-term mid 1260s level. The risk/reward profile is -$700/+$2300. That is pretty much ideal for me. If it does go my way, and does down the road get near my target, I will move stops down to lock in profits and consider moving my target lower as well.

Good luck. More later.

Andy

BLAH

So as it turns out...I pretty much folded the best hand with really good pot odds!!!

Needless to say, the short would have been fairly nice.

Remorsefully but diciplined,

Andy

UPDATE UPDATE UPDATE

UPDATE UPDATE UPDATE!!!

Something is telling me this short is not right. I may kick myself later for getting out before my stop, but I am out. $20 profit...clearly not what I was going for, but I have a bad feeling about the trade...almost like that feeling when you have AQ, and a Q on the flop shows, but the guy ahead of you goes all-in, and you for some reason feel you are beat.....well that's what I am am feeling. He may only have QJ, but I don't want to go out on this hand.

Andy

FIRST TRADE OF SEPTEMBER...

My weekly trend is down, and on the Daily chart, the timing looks good. The stochastic is heading down, and below 50% level. I am short the NASDAQ 100 futures. I much rather would have liked to get in at the high of the day around 1612, but that opportunity may present itself again later today, where I will add my to my 1 lot position (short from 1609). My stop for now is $1 off the high at 1613, but I will adjust it if and when my second short gets lifted.

As for now, I will be looking for proper outs on the stop and target levels.

Good luck.



P.S. I am having trouble loading pics, so I will try to get the charts on this trade up shortly.

GOLD FUTURES SCALP

In keeping with my new trading rule of only taking trades I write about...I want to write about the long I just took in the gold. I am thinking more boredom made me trade this than logic. I am about 5 ticks away from my ridiculous $74 losing trade stop. I am holding it if it takes off for 3 times my lose (roughly $210). Not sure I should have taken the trade. And since I am so close to the stop...I will not get out unless the stop is hit.

Anyway, the basis of the trade is this: the gold has made a nice low for the day, and has bounced back and closed above it's overnight low (I usually look at overnight highs and lows for good support and resistance levels...as do most traders). So, I am long from around 598.5....only risking about $2.


Good luck.

Me

UPDATE.... Got stopped out....Surprise surprise! At the low of the move (596.3) for a loss of $77.

THE INCREDIBLE BOREDOM...

...has me shaking to trade. It seems like forever since I place my last trade (a long in the Midcap 400 futures). The lack of trading is playing mind games with me and my overtrading addiction. I am happy to say, I think I may have kicked the bad habit finally after all these years. Perhaps it was all those days I had to do nothing while my eyes healed from Epi-lasik surgery. I thought long and hard hour after hour each day about the bad trades I have made in my career. I thought about how I wanted to trade less and make more.

Whatever it was that got me to where I am today, it feels a lot better being bored than overtrading feels. I highly recommend 1) Lasik, 2) not overtrading, and 3) writing down EVERYTHING...goals, rules, and thoughts.

That's my advice for this week.

Good luck.

Andy

I HAVE NOTHING TO SAY

...but that never stopped me before! This is what I mean when I say I would rather the pains of trading be the boredom rather than the same terrible mistakes traders make on a daily basis. That is my goal this year; to make my biggest complaint be boredom, not loss of money.

I fear it may be days before i see something tradeable, but that's ok.

I had said for a while now that I was looking to get short..that time has come and gone. Missed opportunities that really didn't present themselves boldly enough to act upon. Then the other day, I got long midcap, and thought I should ditch my long-term strategy and get long everything...Glad I didn't jump on that ridiculous impluse!

Doing nothing at times ends up being the best trade. Afterall, making money, not trading, is the goal.

Good luck.

Andy

KEEP AHEAD OF BAD HABITS!!!

I wanted badly to get long yesterday. As I literally ran from the office door to my computer screen and logged in, I felt my heart pound harder and harder as I was sure I was going to see the market another $5 higher...making me rue even more the fact that I puked a long for a $12.50 profit only to watch it skyrocket.

That heart pounding...that need to get long...or short...that sense that the market WAS FOR SURE MOVING HIGHER....this is sign I need to take a step back. Not for a day, or a week, just a pause...to think and remember that the good trades will come. NEVER FORCE A TRADE. It's ok to be flat for 10 days if nothing presents itself. I forget that sometimes and go right back to my wicked days of overtrading. When I traded in the S&P futures pit, my trade checker, Billy, HATED ME. He checked trades for a few different traders, and in about 1 minute I could hand him a stack of filled out cards 10 times the size of all his other traders put together. If I was in the pit, I was trading. If the market was open, I was flying. Honestly, if it was 9am and I wasn't drenched in sweat, I wasn't working. And I loved it.

Every trader will attest to the fact that overtrading is one of the many ways to drain your account quickly. And I was the best at it. So, anytime I can feel the symptoms coming on...I like to nip them in the bud, so to speak...take a step back and remember...I don't have to trade.

So...nothing yet.

What's on the mind?

A few things. I think we are heading lower....but not sure when. I am flip-flopping, and that's and I can see myself easily chopping myself up if I get in the market right now. I will watch for a little.

Good luck watching or trading.

Andy

IF YOU WANTED TO GET LONG...

...then the time might have been this morning as Friday's close above my downward channel top seemed to confirm a positive breakout. As far as timing a perfect entry, you have to look intra day today. 1312 looks like where the pt. of entry should be on the daily, but the low of the day as of 9am (pt). I did get long at 1310.75, but wussed out of the trade right away b/c I felt I didn't put enough time and research into the trade. It seemed too impulsive when I initiated it. Unfortunately, that may have been my only chance. However, since OVERTRADING has always been my biggest obstacle to success, I can't be mad at passing up trades, especially for good reasons like not doing enough research.

Hope you all had better luck and more time than me this morning.

Good Luck.

Andy

Successful Trade!

The "gut reverse", as I like to call it in the midcap 400 futures turned out to be a success. Getting out for a $200 loss, and getting long turned into a $700 winner. Although the trade still looks good, and normally I would have no reason to get out, I am out of the trade for a net profit of $500
(-200+700) becuase the long weekend could bring any number of surprises. It's better to be rue getting out of a trade too early b/c of good reasons, then to rue not getting out soon enough b/c of bad reason. Anyone get that?!

Anyway, have a great holiday weekend. I will be in Boston for a college friend's wedding. Congratulations, Josh and Debrah.

Good Luck.

Andy

YOUR GUT

While trading with your gut is not something I would recommend, listening to your gut is A MUST!!!

Yesterday I listened to my gut and got out of a short position in the Midcap. There were plenty of things I found after thinking long and hard that supported my gut's feeling, but it was my gut that gets the credit. Anyway, I ended up reversing and getting long, and so far so good in the LONG MIDCAP POSITION. The entry in the Midcap was 748. While I tried to buy another just at my "PERFECT ENTRY POINT" of 747.4, I was unable. It has yet to go against me. My stop point is for now, 745.1, below yesterday's low. I may move it up today. My profit point for now is WAY ABOVE at 772. I may adjust as it is friday and a long weekend, and I don't want to have any positions over the weekend, especially such a long one.

I will watch today, and possibly I may get out if we can't get above 759.

Good luck.

Andy

ATTENTION: CHANGE OF THOUGHT!!!

I have had a change of thought and decided to get out of my short position in the MIDCAP 400 futures. I assumed I was stopped out b/c the overnight high was higher than my stop, but due to a computer "error" on my part, my stop order was canceled (On Wednesday night, I perform an automatic backup of my trading system. The system backs up all my charts and trading strategies, and afterwards, shuts down the computer and restarts...this cancels any working orders)...It was just pure luck that I did not get stopped out for a $330 loss. I got out of the trade when I turned on the computer this morning for a $200 loss.

Here is my thinking: The Russell was in a very similar situation a couple of days ahead of the Midcap. I wrote about possibly taking the long, but decided against it...for many reasons which I talked about (the lack of proper risk/reward profile on the trade, etc...Another reason I didn't take the trade was b/c the Midcap looked similar but for a short. The two are different indexes....but on the whole..they trade somewhat relative to each other. Being long one and short the other makes ok sense for a hedge...but on a common sensical level seemed pretty stupid to me-at least as far as wanting to make money.

Right now, the Russell 2K is still looking bullish and the Midcap broke the recent highs. I looked this morning again, and actually thought about it in bed last night, and right now, it looks more of a buy than a sell.

Since I am confused...I do nothing. Take a small loss...and watch. My gut tells me getting out was a great thing to do. Dicipline dicipline dicipline. The great trades will present themselves. Don't push an ok trade while praying it works out. That NEVER works out.

Good luck.

Andy

MID CAP 400 SHORT

While the Russell 2000 broke out of the 60 min to go long...at least for now, the Midcap looks like it might be decent for a short per the 60-minute. Here it is right at the downward channel top @ the 747 level. The stochastic is coming out of overbought territory and just crossed below the stoch. 80 level . I will hold a stop-loss about $1 above the recent highs of 749.1. The profit goal will be the retest level of the reverse Head & Shoulders pattern of 731ish.

Good Luck.

Andy

RUSSELL UPDATE

So far the breakout has taken hold of the scene in the Russell 2K. The breakout I was suggesting was just above the 710 level, with a no-doubt-fill at about 712. I mentioned I did not take the trade b/c I could not find a decent stop-loss/profit ratio. I thought a good stop would about $600-700, just below recent lows, but no profit point in sight....perhaps that was diciplined, but right now the Russell sits at about 721-722 (about $1000 in the money. That's good, but not even a 2:1...I like to trade at a minimum 3:1 to my money...meaning that if I was going to risk $700...I want to see a potential $2100 gain. I didn't see it. So...until it gets up to the 731 level, I will keep my head up.

Good luck.

Andy

RUSSELL FUTURES BREAK-OUT

It seems that the Russell 2000 Futures have broken out of a semi-long-term 60-min downtrend channel. The timing and stochastics seemed to be right. However, I did not take the trade for the following reasons: 1) I have said that for me to take a trade this week, it would HAVE TO BE PERFECT. And, if a trade isn't perfect, it probably isn't worth taking in the first place. 2) While the price was right, and the risk seemed ok $600ish, I couldn't find a decent risk/reward profile for the trade. I had the stop down, but couldn't find a decent profit expectation. And, without that, risking $600 to make who knows what, was not good enough for me.

Enjoy.

JAPANESE YEN LONG

I am thinking the time is near to enter a long for in the Japanese Yen. I however do not know if I will enter the trade for the simple reason that i have never traded the yen before. I think I will just paper trade this one and if it goes the way I predict, kinda kick myself for missing it, while patting myself on the back for being diciplined and holding back the urge to trade just for the simple facct that I see something.

So..on the weekly chart (see previous Jap. Yen posted chart) the time is pretty good. On a daily, the previous low is here, and the long bullish shadow on the candle stick (july 5th) looks like a lot of support down here (0.854). See Daily chart. While I do think it's ok to buy here per that bullish shadow there (stops below that low)...I think the best timing would be to wait for the 60min chart bearish channel to be broken. It would mean waiting longer and getting in at a worse price, but it would just show more strength if it broke that trend too.

That is what I will do...or for that matter, not do.

Good luck.

Andy

Here it Comes

As I have been writing, I am overall bearish on the LONG-term. I have said however, that I am waiting for the real push up back near the highs to sell. And that would coincide with my downward channel. That area is approaching. I do however caution myself against entering a position that is not at the MOST HIGH PROBIBILITY AREA, given that it is still August and most people are just coming back from vaca. now. In addition, to play devil's advocate, while I have certain areas I would like to get in at in the NQ and ES, I have not yet figured out the best places to get out (via stop losses). Until I establish good areas to get out, I will refrain from posting my entry areas. You all can look at my charts and figure it out for now on your own.

Good luck.

Andy

LONG TERM GOOGLE: SHORT

I am going out on a limb today with a longer-term short on Google. Now, being that 1) I don't often trade stocks (futures only for the most part) and 2) I am by no stretch an expert on the internet sector...I don't suggest anyone go out and short GOOG today. I just go by what my charts tell me and what common sense says.

I have been thinking negative thoughts about google for some time now, possibly due to my frustration in not getting in on the longs when the stock went public not so long ago at what I remember to be about $80(?)... Anyway, this morning I read the Russell Report, as I always do, and in the second paragraph, he writes what I have been thinking for a few weeks now. In short, he talks about EBAY, YAHOO!, AMAZON, ETC...and how they all hit their respective highs and now trade at their lows. All except Google, which is just coming off it's highs.

Now, on my blog about 1 month ago, I wrote of a possible good short opportunity in GOOG between mid to upper $420. The day after I wrote that, it tanked...Clearly b/c everyone is reading my blog! My target of $390 was hit not too long after. And Google has not gotten above $400 since. I had been thinking that all were waiting for the right time to get back in and ride it all the way back up...but isn't that what we all did in 2000? Aren't we still waiting with China.com and Lucent in our portfolios? Well, my chart above shows the recent break of the long-term up trend and possibly the beginning of a new long-term down trend. I WILL NOT BUY GOOGLE...but I MAY SELL IT. I would wait for a high probibility trade at and around the upper line of the new down Channel drawn.

As always...good luck...and do your own research before trading.

Andy

MID CAP SET-UP...

I am seeing this set-up as an EITHER WAY set-up. It's one of those rare, could be an easy long, but if wrong, easy reverser short trade. The overall trend I see in the Midcap index is for sure on the short side. That leads me to want to stay short. The set-up however looks to be one of a long biased one. If we can stay above the lower trendline from the recent lows, and put a stop in just below the most recent low...I think it's fairly safe and could be a nice ride up.

However...Since I see the overall trend as being down, I think a better play MAY be just waiting to see if we can break the lower trend line to take a short pos. in the direction of what I think is the overal trend.

Just Wait

Honestly...I don't see anything yet. I have not made a trade in 4 days, and as sad as it sounds, that's a record for me...and a record I look forward to breaking time and time again!

It's possible that volitility will come back after Labor Day, as most likely everyone else suggests aswell. Until then, I will sit and watch the paint dry.

As I wrote before...I am looking fwd to recent highs to sell, or close to that...more to come later.

Andy

POTENTIAL TRADE COMING UP: JAPANESE YEN...

Nothing so far today, however I do still have tons of charts to sift through. I do notice a possible channel trade setting up some time soon in the Japanese Yen. I would say it's a LONG, but you always have to wait for the best set-up to see if it is anything at all. Look at the chart. It's a weekly chart, so you can't just trade it when the Yen gets to the "buy" point...which here looks to be somewhere around .845-.85ish depending on when it gets there.

Like I have said before, the best trades are those that start on "bigger" charts like a Weekly or a Daily, but then are initiated by finding the best entry on a 60 minute, then futher down to at the VERY LEAST a 15 minute chart. I would almost never initiate a long-term trade off of a weekly or daily or even a 60 minute chart. There is simply just too much room for error. If your account can handle it, then fine, but for me, I'd rather wait for a better intraday set-up to get in.

Good luck. More to come later today for sure.

Andy

2006 WSOP!!!

He finished an AMAZING 23rd in the tourny. Bringing home just under $500K. Not bad.

GOLD FUTURES DAILY CHART

Link to a DISASTER!!!

Scroll down just a tad to view KFed at his best. Oh Man, is it bad!!! It's not like he even danced, or played the piano or sang or did anything remotely talented! If you are white, and you rap, at least be 10% as good as Eminem (who I can't even stand)...not 10% as good as Vanilla Ice. YIKES!!!!

BEST TRADE: Kfed to Hezbollah for a Terrorist to be Named Later

Ok, not market related, but I happened to see the Teen Choice Awards Last night just enough to catch Kfed's debut. OMG!!! It was just so so so so bad. Honestly, I respect Brittney for allowing him to make a fool of himself and feel the pain of the public eye. Please try to catch some clips on some websites. He was just so aweful.

Anyway, back to trading. Sorry to all who do read my blog and were disappointed to find no entries all week AND no email fwds aswell. I have a two-part excuse...and it's a doozy! 1) I had Epi-Lasik surgery last week and couldn't open my eyes for about 3 days and couldn't look at a computer screen for another 2 days. 2) My MS Outlook was not working and it took me until I could see to realize it. I was having my wife fwd all the regular emails daily, but for some reason, while I was receiving emails, my outbox was filling up with unsendable emails!!! So...Some of you may have received those mails today as miraculously Yahoo! has fixed the problem finally.

Overall market feel. Clearly I have to catch up to the action as of late, but my mind is swaying more to the longer-term downside. We have made a serious and strong rebound after breaking that 2 year uptrend, but honestly, I expected just that.

It's possible in my view that we can see new yearly highs sometime soon, but that only would reach a point where I see the markets hitting my downtrend channels that I have drawn...especially in the Nasdaq futures. Keep in mind..I trade futures...it may make a difference!

So, short-term...who knows...could go up some. But I am not taking longs. I am waiting for trades to set up, and I don't see anything yet todya. The one trade I do see coming up is in Gold Futures (YGZ06).

Long long term UP, short term DOWN. I did call a nice short the night before it happened 2 weeks ago and it made a nice profit of $15 ($500ish per 1 lot, vs the $60-$90 stop-loss I suggested). That downtrend on the daily chart is still intact, but b/c the Long long term trend is still up, and stochastics are approaching oversold and we are nearing the upper line of the downward channel, I am weary to sell it again. It could be an ok play, but if we break to the upside, it can be the contiuation of the bigger up trend.

I will update this later with pics and charts. For now...enjoy and let me know what you think.

Andy

Sell Gold? Imagine that!

Considering that I trade gold all the time, and mostly from the long side per my system in gold, it is rare that I take a trade in gold based on my charts (like I do in every other market). But, alas, I see a possible trade and it's from the short side. Here it is...

Gold has come back quite a bit since it's sell-off in June. It's right at the fib. retracement levels between 31 and 62%. It's above 50%, so some might not feel like selling, but per my trend line, it's right there at resistance and the Stoch are around 77. A sale of YG near the close of today's price of 661 would be perfect, but I would wait to see where we trade tomorrow.

As I have said before, I NEVER enter a trade per a daily chart. I always look futher intraday for entries. In this case, looking at the 60, 30, 15 and 5 minute charts to fine tune entries, or to find ways to dissuade short entries is smartest.

Intraday today, there was a huge spike up to around the $664 level....ideally, a sale around there is best with stops somewhere close above there.

Good luck trading.

Andy

Vacation/Sorry

Sorry, everybody. I forgot to write that I would be taking a vacation!!! I am back...almost. Took a week off and then we had a wedding in Gainseville, FL. (Congrats, Julie and Darren!) and finally our 1/2 hour layover in Dallas became a 7 1/2 hour delay. Got home too late last night to make it in today, so working from home today-should be back in full force tomorrow.

Lot's of great things coming up in my blog this week. While on vacation (and btw, I highly recommend a vacation every now and then for traders, it helps clear your head of all those trading obstacles), I wrote a lot about my rules and different trading ideas. I can't wait to share them.

Another very cool thing is that my friend Robby Roseman, who qualified for this second str8 year online for the WSOP, is now in his 2nd week of live play at the NH championship and has outlasted over 8000 people to make it to the last 45! He's got a decent stack of 1.8plus million chips and is guarenteed to cash in at a nice trade profit of $250K. Knowing him, he won't be happy unless he gets to the final table....I see it as a possibility. Go Robby! Good luck!!!!

Andy

MAKING MONEY IS NOT THE GOAL OF SUCCESSFUL TRADING, IT'S THE BYPRODUCT

I cannot claim this crazy revolation as my own. I am sure I read it elsewhere and only recently came to understand it as my own. And, I am positive that all those that I read (C.Kirk, Mark Douglas, Marcel Link, et al.) will agree to this:

Making money in trading is hard...especially when you are TRYING to make money. However, if your focus is to make good trades, and really, truly, THAT alone is your goal, THEN AND ONLY THEN, will money be made.

I sit here with a short gold position and I am at least 5 points in the money. I have wanted all morning to add to this position, but there is no good reason to do so and no good place to do so. I simply want to add more to the trade b/c I want to make more money. I want to trade and really, that's the only reason. BUT, if I were to think about making GOOD TRADES the goal, then it is clear that I should NOT add to this trade here and now. A huge sigh of relief through my body when I realized this.

A little more....Making the act of making good trades the goal, makes it easier to make money. When I think..."I just want to make $100 more today.", or "I am adding to my 1 lot and scalping out for 2 more points", it becomes so easy to let money slip away. But if only I were to wait for good trades to present themselves, I limit my trading to high probability trades. And that's when money comes.

I am sure I could have said all of this better...but as long as I get it for now, that's fine with me.

Good luck, Traders.

Andy

MARKET GOES DOWN, I AM SHORT, I LOSE MONEY

http://i62.photobucket.com/albums/h101/asunblock/MIDCAPSHORTTIMING.jpg


http://i62.photobucket.com/albums/h101/asunblock/RUSSELLSHORTTIMING.jpg

I was writing to a fellow trader the other day about waiting for trades to present themselves, rather than force things. Sometimes "ok" looking setups happen, and you can go either way...sometimes you make money, but mostly you lose. And then those "perfect" trades appear and you think to yourself, "Why don't I just wait for these kinds of trades instead of chopping myself up?!". Well, practive what you preach, my friends.

At around 10:45 am today, the russell and midcap both looked like good sales as they broke their intraday 15 minute uptrends. Everything about the trades looked great, except the following: ENTRY, STOCHASTIC and TIME OF DAY! Time of day...well, I don't know...sometimes I think it matters, but when you are trading purely technical, I can allow exceptions. Stochastic on the other hand....they are what they are. If you look at them and follow them, they do so. Don't cheat. And Entry...if you don't have a good entry into a trade, then you might aswell just give your money away. Have direct deposit into a charity or something, b/c you are not going to make money over the long run...or short run for that matter.

Needless to say, I was short, market went down, and I still lost money. My entries sucked...I chased the market, and I had no idea where to place stops. To make matters worse, (and this I bet happens to all of you) my targets were hit perfectly. Had I just waited for a better set-up...I might not have made the optimum, but I would have made the most while risking the least.

If you care, the two charts I posted are of the MidCap and Russell2K futures on 15 min charts. Imagine losing money on shorts!!!!

me

BEARS CAN BE LONG TOO!

It seems that everyone forgot that as of yesterday, the markets were all headed to ZERO! Now, I do know the significance of an big up day on big volume...but one up day out of a few weeks of selling doesn't convince me. All the indexes have broken their respective long-term uptrends (weekly charts) except the DOW. I am not looking to buy the DOW, nor was I yesterday (unfortunately) b/c while it looked buyable...all the other indexes were crap. In addition to breaking the long-term uptrends, all the indexes (including the DOW) are below their respecive 50 and 200 day moving averages. As of now..I am neutral with a bearish lean. I will let the markets tell me different.

With that, I may sit on the sidelines, I may look for places to sell...not sure. But in the meantime...I am not against riding some longs even though I am bearish (like I did today)...Afterall, making money is the game, not being right.

me

SOMEBODY SHOOT ME!!!

What a terrible trading day for me. My fund was down a small 1.5 % again..that's fine. and I ended up making back that money on a long I took in the midcap futures. That was a great trade...what sucked was ME! I was up good in the midcap trade and decided to put a hedge on with dow futures. What a moron. All I ended up doing was taking away good profits from my good longs. With the amount of round turns I did today, I probably am down a little money. Just sucks to sit here all day and accomplish nothing. Felt like a rookie. It happens. Please tell me it happens to you too....

me

ARABS DIVIDED

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060718/ap_on_re_mi_ea/mideast_arabs_1

CONGRATS ON THE GOOGLE SHORT?

http://i62.photobucket.com/albums/h101/asunblock/GOOGSHORT.jpg
For those of you who took this google short that I posted last week, Congrats! It's hit the target today after a monster drop of over $17.
I suggested the short at $424 risking to just above $429. Great risk/reward.

For those who read this blog, you already know I did not take the short!

Andy

RUSSELL SAVES THE DAY

My commodity fund was stopped out pretty early today (Down 1.6%). I managed to scratch the day with this good Russell2000 futures short. I took this trade just after 7am my time when the 3rd 15 minute bar opened and headed lower below the channel resistance from the day before. Stochastic were headed lower and the blue line just crossed over the red.I got further confirmation when the index closed two brackets later below the 9 bar moving avg. I got out just above the two recent lows from the two previous days (679ish). I bought a 67940 or 60. Overall a good trade. Later in the day, I tried to get long when the mkt closed above the moving average again, the stochs. were oversold and coming up. I didn't realize I got signed out of my front-end, and by the time I logged back on, it was too late and I didn't want to chase the market. Good decision.

Have a great night. Hump day tomorrow. And it's my 30th B-day on the 21st (Friday!!!!) Send presents to the following address:

kidding.

me

PUTTING THINGS IN PERSPECTIVE

I went to the hospital last night to visit a friend who sits behind me at work. He was in a nasty car accident on Sat. night. He was on a dark desert road when he swerved to miss a coyote. His car flipped at least 6 times. He broke his neck and collar bone and miraculously, no nerve damage was done. He was clearly tired and in pain and scared, but I watched as he moved his arms and legs and listened when he talked quietly. I knew he didn't want me to stay long, and that was fine. All I kept thinking was how lucky he was to be moving and to be alive. And, I think that's all he was thinking aswell. So, today, I just want to give it up for Tod Ruble. Let's hope he has a speedy recovery. It's expected that he'll have that enormous and constricting "halo" cast on for at least 3 months and it will be about a year until he is fully recovered. I hope he can fully recover. So so lucky. So...my bad trading day yesterday and all the negative thoughts I had about that quickly disipated when I learned the extent of Todds injuries. I will bounce right back from bad trading days, but Todd has a long road to recovery and I am sure he would do anything to trade places with a dumb trader who is upset over a bad trading day.

Get well soon, Todd.

me

THANK THE LORD FOR MY COMMODITY FUND

It's up today just over 6%. Fantastic day for the fund. I swear, I wish I had millions in this. I found something that has truly seemed to be workining. Now, if I can just figure a way to stop losing money on stupid things...I would be a good trader.

I made a big mistake today (read blog entry from this a.m.). All in all, I am down money today...good thing my investor money is only going into my fund and not the other trades! Lucky guys!...

More later.

Have to make it to the gym...that makes my trading better.

me

I NEED HELP!

Why is it that I make mistakes? It's not just regular mistakes, it's the same mistakes over and over again. My Fund is up a whopping 6% today, and I am down a whopping 2K today! How is that possible? It's because I tried to make a little money when and where there was none to be made. And, when the trade got out of hand, I doubled up...and then trippled up. So here I sit with a great position in my fund and I am down money. If I hadn't shown up for work today, my system would have triggered my trade for me, and I would be up plenty. But alas, I got invloved!

WHOA IS ME!!!

honest and frustrade,

Andy

Closing Bell

Forgot to mention...

My fund up a measly 1% today. I know that's not too shabby, but it was up more than 3% at one pt. today. I tell ya, following systems is just as frustrating as not following systems....Well, not really.

Have a great weekend!!!

PIRATES OF THE CARRIBEAN

I watched this page this morning and the more I watched, the less I saw to trade. And trust me...I wanted to trade something. It's like an addiction, and when trading becomes like an addiction, LEAVE.

And that's exactly what I did! Pirates of the Carribean II...good movie.

Anyway, I wish I could do it more often, leave work, that is, but it's hard and usually there IS something to do. But on my way back to the office from my 9:00 showing, I was thinking this: I made a great trade on Wed. where I took the S&Ps from 127600 to 126400. That's 12 dollars on a one lot. I did add one down the road and made roughly $850. On pretty much a 1 lot! That's amazing. The problem is, I try to do that all the time. I press and I press and I try to force trades that aren't there. I wanted to just make some money this week. Maybe a measly $1000 (and believe me, when you are trading, the idea of making $1000 in a week seems pointless.) But by trying to make that kind of trade everyday, I ended up losing most of the time instead of waiting for the trades to present themselves.

Believe me, I can make 4K on a trade, but I can also lose 5K. But when I am more controlled, and wait for the trades, I might only make $500 here and $300 there and a random $12-15000 there. By waiting, my week ended up about $1200. Not great...not enough to even live off of in Scottsdale, AZ...but believe me...when the market is crappy, and you are forcing trades, making anything is better than losing $1.

This is a great segue into what TRADING ON THE FLOOR OF THE CME was like. I was requested by 1 of the 3, YES THREE! readers of my blog to talk some about that....

I knew lots of traders in the pit who were big shots. They traded 10 lots in the SPOOS...they traded 20-50 even. And when they did well, they did well. But lots of times I would talk to them and they would be down $100 for the week or up $50. Point is, these guys were risking SO SO much, and making no more than I was at times. I just didn't get that risk/reward ratio. Lot's of those guys are not trading anymore. It's better to be small and consistant and wait for "sure things" (and by that, I mean trades that are at least stacked in your favor) than being a lame BSD.

More about pit trading later...It's friday and I am up!

Andy

P.S. My wife is working with me on my delivery...I know I ramble and make stories too long...it's from my mother!

$$$aving Money

The two moving averages seen in this chart are the 50 day (10 week) and the 200 day. They didn't seem to mean a thing as the market broke both and didn't look back. I didn't really trade much today, and with that, I think I traded too much.

Commodity Fund was down a normal 1.6%...that's fairly average for a down day since I place my stops pretty much in the same place everyday. Gold however ended the day up pretty big (up $10). Sad thing is I was long today, but just couldn't hold past my stop. It happens. Discipline, Andy, Discipline!!!

I did take a short in the Nasdaq that covered that small loss in my fund, but also played a little too much in oil wich gave that back. So..scratched the day give or take $60.

Good thing I didn't take that short in the oil that I suggested. It seems backing out of that trade yesterday, as well as saying "watch out" for all the indexes as they broke those previous lows, were two of the best calls I have had in a while. Unfortunately, not all good calls result in making money. Some just result in saving money.

And that is a big part of trading...Saving money.

Anyone who has traded can tell you this: a trading day most often can look like this: up $20, down $100, up $300. You can't just count the up $ trades. P&L consists of winners and losers. What I am trying to say, is that even bad traders have made money...they just lost more than they made. I just read someone who said in their BEST year, they lost 150 million dollars. That same year, however, they made 300 million dollars! (not an exact quote). Point is if you can limit those losers, then...well, I think you know what I am saying. I have a tendency to ramble and make stories longer than they have to be. So with that....I pretty much focus on trying not to lose money...the good money-making trades will present themselves.

TWO GOOD NON-TRADES IN ONE WEEK?!

Huh, For those 2 of you who read this blog (me and my wife), I had another great non-trade yesterday! Now, if I could only get together a bunch of good actual TRADES, then I would be extremely pleased.

CRUDE OIL SHORT: I had written twice about this short that I was waiting to take, and in after-hours yesterday, I finally got my chance. Did I wuss out? No way....but I didn't take it either. I sat there, put the trade on, watched it go my way a few ticks and put my stop in, and then...Well, the crude trade book looked WAY too light and thin to trade. It seemed that even if I was right, there was not enough liquidity in that market at that time. I quickly got out of the trade and pulled my stops. Who knew Israel and Lebanon would start a war and oil would reach new record highs? Not me! But you would think I knew something. Truth is, I didn't...and that's why I didn't trade it!

me
Investing
Market Dispatches, 10:05 a.m. ET
Global gloom clouds the market
Israel's attack on Lebanon raises geopolitical concerns. Oil prices set yet another intraday high. Merrill Lynch downgrades Wal-Mart and CIBC cuts its rating on Disney. Pepsi tops the Street's targets.
Jubak: 3 ways to win from the oil glut



Israeli troops fire across Lebanon's border.
Israel hits Lebanon's airports, blocks ports, bombs army
Israel blew up all three runways at the Beirut airport, bombed a TV station and blocked Lebanon's ports. The Israel Defense Forces dropped leaflets warning residents in a Beirut neighborhood of an impending attack. The Associated Press reports local police said Israeli warplanes attacked a Lebanese army air base near the Syrian border, the first strike on Lebanon's army.
DEVELOPING STORY
Fighting spreads Gallery
A history of violence
• Israel hits Palestinian Foreign Ministry building

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Today's Action

Clearly it was a gift from above that I wasn't able to get into my long NQ position yesterday. As I wrote in my blog yesterday, "...buy 'em. Close stops below recent lows are a good way to stay away from heavy losses. If we break those lows, all bets are off, and watch us tumble."

As I left the office before the close, the commodity index was up just over 1%. It was up more than twice that in the a.m. before heading lower-for a short time posting a loss. It's the long-run that counts.

I am still trying to get into a short in the aug. crude oil contract, but stops there will be very tight as oil is clearly in a bull market and I rarely like to get on the opp. side of the market. Any suggestions here?

DISCLAIMER

DISCLAIMER - I DO NOT MAKE RECOMMENDATIONS TO BUY OR SELL SECURITIES - I JUST POST MY THOUGHTS, TRADES, AND OPINIONS. DO YOUR OWN DUE DILIGENCE - YOU ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR TRADES, INVESTMENTS, AND DECISIONS!

GOOGLE CHART

http://i62.photobucket.com/albums/h101/asunblock/GOOGSHORT.jpg

END OF DAY and TRADE UPDATES

The nasdaq longs seem to have been pretty good. The mid 1520s are the lows now, so the trade is safe in the money. To be honest, I am not in the trade. As I watched the day go by, I wished more and more I could stick to what I recommended, but it doesn't always happen that way. This morning the market opened lower (about even to my entry 1530ish). But the news of the bombing in Bombay should have taken most longs out of their positions...as it did mine. Given the news, I took to the sidelines for most of the morning after a lucky/stupid scalp. I never did get back into the trade and now as we are almost $20 higher, I feel the pain.

Check out my other post from today THE BEST NON-TRADE.

Market Overall: I had been short the Nasdaq and Dow for over a month now and have not made any money on the shorts (made a little in QQQQ shorts, lost a lot in the DIA shorts) I think the end of today says a lot. The final hour is usually when big money gets involved. Like I said yesterday, it seems weak, and the nasdaq is at a pivot pt. I like buying when it's weak, and the buys in the NQ ( though I don't have them) are good. I think we could have a few up days in the NQ and it's hard for one market to be up considerably without the others following. So...buy 'em. Close stops below recent lows are a good way to stay away from heavy losses. If we break those lows, all bets are off, and watch us tumble.

Crude oil came close, but no cigar to the short entry above $75...couldn't get into a short position at a good level and perhaps it's b/c other people didn't miss the trade last week like I did.

I will get into the commodity fund I have been managing later on, but since it was an up day in the system, I feel it's a good day to mention it. So here it is: I have created an automated system trade in some of the commodity markets. The system is doing very well for the year (started the trade mid Feb 2006, but have back-testing it for years). It's up a decent percentage still after giving back some in June. For now, I will give the % up/%down for the day each day. I base all % gains off an initial investment of $10,000. The daily perentage DOES TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SLIPPAGE AND COMMISIONS!

GOOG: I definately would not be one to tell anyone to sell this stock, but I did listen to someones explaination of a short opportunity today in google. I will show the chart. It's expensive to buy or sell and it's volitility scares me. I time to sell it would be between todays close $424.8 and below $429.9. The stock is strong and I only wish I had bought it long ago. Not to mention it potentially becoming an ISP/phone company one day. Looks good for future earnings. Anyway..the short has a potential target of mid $390s (near 10-week moving average). Since we close near the stop level I would set of just above $430, it's not a bad trade. See chart. Keep in mind, this was not my idea, so if it works, kudos goes to someone else...if it fails, go ahead...yell at me.

Commodity Fund up 3.3%

YTD (since inception) 37%


If it intrigues any of you, feel free to inquire.

Andy

THE BEST NON-TRADE!

I traded today mostly from the short side. I have been trying to trade much less and keep the trades limited to those I rate very high on a scale of 1-10. A few trades made the list today, but one that I didn't take today was one of my best non-trades ever.

On a short term basis, a bunch of the indexes (SP, ND, YM-that's S&P, Nasdaq and Dow futures) were in good downtrending channels. I will include a chart of at least one to show. As the day went on, I was dying to get in a short trade in the dow. I wanted to sell them around 11125ish...but each time it got close, it would go back down to the lows. And then....the time came. The stochastics were overbought, and my target entry was reached. But something happened. The ND, and the SPs also were creeping up...and too fast. They looked a little too strong. The problem is, it almost always looks strong when it's time to sell, just as it almost always looks weak when it's time to buy. The point is, listen to your gut. If something is telling you it's wrong, then it's wrong....maybe not for the rest of the trading world, but for you. And it was wrong for me...and guess what...it rallied hard. I would have lost a bunch. Instead, I switched markets, focused on the S&Ps and watched as it closed on the 15 minute above a resistance level. I took the long, and a trade that started out as a sure short loser, became a nice long winner.

In the end, the feeling of making a good trade is good. But the feeling of NOT making a bad trade is better. It shows discipline. And anyone who knows this business knows that discipline is the key.

Missed Opportunity in Oil???

Though I do aknowledge we are in a major uptrend in crude oil, I fell there is an opportunity to take a nice short here. I hope I didn't miss the opportunity last week when oil tested near highs around $75.775. As you can see in the weekly and daily charts, the uptrend is completely intact, but a new channel top can be used to short the futures with risking only to new highs plus a little (to avoid an upthrusting fakeout of shorts). The perfect time to take the trade is the first time it hits that level, which was last week. It is worth watching to see if we retest last weeks high to enter the trade again. Notice how the stochastic is hovering near the oversold area. This gives me more confidence in the trade. As always in an uptrend, be careful taking shorts, but this one looks pretty good to me. Furthermore, I would suggst pulling up some intraday charts to pinpoint a good entry level...or not.

Buying Nasdaq

chart order: Wkly, daily, 15, 5min NQ




I spent the better part of the day looking for a spot to buy the NQs. On a weekly chart, I still feel we are in a bullish trend. I haven't tried to post any charts on here, but when I am done writing, I will attempt it. The channel I have drawn makes it seem that now, despite all the bears, now would be the best time to buy some Nasdaq futures (1526ish). When I take a closer look on a daily chart, I see two things: 1) since Jan 11th 206, we have steadily come down in a nice bearish channel and this channel is still intact and 2) the bearish channel from Jan 11th, hit the bottom of the weekly bullish channel today. What does this mean to the average trader? It means two things, either look so sell on a daily level, or look to buy on a weekly. To me, I know that the stronger of the two trends is the weekly trend. So, I am looking to buy per the weekly.

Given that, I have to find a good place on a daily and then a 60 minute, 15 minute and on down the line to a 5 minute chart to pinpoint a solid entry. The 60 minute gave me nothing all day, but the 15 and 5 were golden. After a nice headfake on the 5 minute where I got in around 1534, and got stopped out at 1531, a better entry on both the 15 and 5 minute charts occured around 1531.75 at around 12:50 pacific time. that is where I got in. Sorry if the charts don't work.

Being Honest

This is the first of my blog entries.

It's been almost 2 hours since I got here this a.m. and aside from my gold system trade, I have not put anything on. Very cathartic holding back from putting on tons of trades to just make money. I find that looking back over results of many months, I usually try to just make money as soon as I can. I find it hard NOT to be in the market at all times, even if just a 1 lot. What that has netted me, a lot of winners and a lot of losers and a lot of commissions and a lot of stress.
It's much better for me to weed out all those hundreds of trades I make with 70% sureity and focus only making trades that I am 90%+ sure of. Now, that doesn't mean that I will make money on those trades all the time, but I think it will be a lot better for the "making money" goal I have set for myself in life. If making trades was the goal, then I reached that goal a LONG time ago! My goal is to one day get very real and honest about my trading. As soon as I can admit things to this blog, I may get somewhere.
Hmmmm....about time, huh?
Andy