The nasdaq longs seem to have been pretty good. The mid 1520s are the lows now, so the trade is safe in the money. To be honest, I am not in the trade. As I watched the day go by, I wished more and more I could stick to what I recommended, but it doesn't always happen that way. This morning the market opened lower (about even to my entry 1530ish). But the news of the bombing in Bombay should have taken most longs out of their positions...as it did mine. Given the news, I took to the sidelines for most of the morning after a lucky/stupid scalp. I never did get back into the trade and now as we are almost $20 higher, I feel the pain.
Check out my other post from today THE BEST NON-TRADE.
Market Overall: I had been short the Nasdaq and Dow for over a month now and have not made any money on the shorts (made a little in QQQQ shorts, lost a lot in the DIA shorts) I think the end of today says a lot. The final hour is usually when big money gets involved. Like I said yesterday, it seems weak, and the nasdaq is at a pivot pt. I like buying when it's weak, and the buys in the NQ ( though I don't have them) are good. I think we could have a few up days in the NQ and it's hard for one market to be up considerably without the others following. So...buy 'em. Close stops below recent lows are a good way to stay away from heavy losses. If we break those lows, all bets are off, and watch us tumble.
Crude oil came close, but no cigar to the short entry above $75...couldn't get into a short position at a good level and perhaps it's b/c other people didn't miss the trade last week like I did.
I will get into the commodity fund I have been managing later on, but since it was an up day in the system, I feel it's a good day to mention it. So here it is: I have created an automated system trade in some of the commodity markets. The system is doing very well for the year (started the trade mid Feb 2006, but have back-testing it for years). It's up a decent percentage still after giving back some in June. For now, I will give the % up/%down for the day each day. I base all % gains off an initial investment of $10,000. The daily perentage DOES TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SLIPPAGE AND COMMISIONS!
GOOG: I definately would not be one to tell anyone to sell this stock, but I did listen to someones explaination of a short opportunity today in google. I will show the chart. It's expensive to buy or sell and it's volitility scares me. I time to sell it would be between todays close $424.8 and below $429.9. The stock is strong and I only wish I had bought it long ago. Not to mention it potentially becoming an ISP/phone company one day. Looks good for future earnings. Anyway..the short has a potential target of mid $390s (near 10-week moving average). Since we close near the stop level I would set of just above $430, it's not a bad trade. See chart. Keep in mind, this was not my idea, so if it works, kudos goes to someone else...if it fails, go ahead...yell at me.
Commodity Fund up 3.3%
YTD (since inception) 37%
If it intrigues any of you, feel free to inquire.
Andy
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1 comment:
Andy,
Nice YTD return on the fund. How is the backtesting in a down market? That always seems to be where I can't quite tweak the model.
Would love to hear what it was like to work on the commodities floor as a trader in your blog.
Anyway, keep up the blog, you now have at least three people reading it.
T. Rockmann
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